Poll: Republicans Divided On Whether To Confirm Sotomayor
Last week I asked whether there was growing evidence that GOP leaders were increasingly at odds with the Republican rank and file on key issues. Well, here’s another data point: A new poll finds that Republican rank-and-filers are surprisingly divided over whether to confirm Sonia Sotomayor, though many GOP leaders are still hammering her.
Yesterday, The Washington Post released new polling finding that a sizable majority of Americans, 62%, want Sotomayor confirmed. I asked WaPo’s polling team for the partisan breakdown, and here’s how Republicans come down on whether to confirm her:
Should 36%
Should not 43%
No opinion 21%
There’s only a seven-point split between the number of Republicans who think she should be confirmed and the number who don’t — at a time when Republican leaders continue to raise questions about her nomination.
As I noted last week, we’re seeing this on other isolated issues, too. Fifty percent of Republicans say they back a public health care option, and 60% of liberal and moderate Republicans support a cap and trade approach to limiting greenhouse gas emissions — both of which are strongly opposed by GOP leaders.
To be fair, it’s way too early to call this a trend. The Republican rank and file still overwhelmingly trusts the GOP on some key issues. But there are clear signs of a possible divide between the rank and file and the leadership, and it bears keeping an eye on.
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Unless Greg has some actual numbers on how Republican Senators intend on voting regarding Sotomayor’s confirmation, I would think he is absolutely wrong about this. In fact, I’ll bet that the Senators are more strongly in favor of confirming her than rank and file Republicans. Too bad it was a split decision – this just gives ammo to both sides. At any rate, I don’t think it correct to confirm or deny her the seat based on one decision alone.
sbj, my point was that the leadership is not yet ready to go forward with confirmation, whereas a sizable chunk of GOP rank and filers is ready to see her confirmed.
You are reaching here, Greg. A majority of “rank and filers” agree with the leaders and you cite this as evidence of a disagreement? The result here is precisely the opposite of the other supposed trends that you assert. In this case, rank and file Republicans are arguably more conservative about an issue than most Republicans in the Senate (while being in majority agreement with Repub “leaders”). These results do not support the broad case that you have been recently making.
I think your post goes to show the obvious and heavily commented on split between interests of members of the GOP. As America as a whole continues to trend towards the middle, this does mean that many Republicans are more liberal/moderate leaving extreme rights left to disagree, these typically being ones in leadership positions, correct?
I don’t think the GOP will become obsolete, but there is just a change going on.
http://tinyurl.com/qvsjfv
Here’s how it looks to me: roughly 25% of the voting population identifies as republican. Yet 40% of the Senate is republican. Of self-identified republican votes, 36% support Sotomayor, 43% oppose. That is a truly miniscule number of people.
What this really tells us is, there is a disproportionate number of republican senators in Congress, given the number in the general population. They should be mindful of this, and try to tailor their votes to the new reality.