How Strong A General Election Candidate Is Specter, Anyway?
One other point to consider when thinking about the Dem establishment’s embrace of newly-minted Dem Senator Arlen Specter:
It isn’t even clear that he’d be all that strong a 2010 Senate race general election candidate.
This week’s Quinnipiac poll finds that Specter is in a dead heat in a general election matchup if the Republican candidate is former Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge. Specter leads Ridge by only three points, 46%-43%, which is within the margin of error. Note that Specter didn’t break 50% — not great for an incumbent of sorts.
Another new poll, by Susquehanna Polling & Research, also finds that Specter is in a dead heat in a general election matchup against Ridge, trailing him by one point, 39%-38%. While this is an automated poll, it found the same thing as the Q-poll.
It’s true that Specter holds a sizable lead if the GOP candidate is conservative former Club for Growth chief Pat Toomey. But the rub here is that it’s very likely that another Dem candidate, such as Dem Rep Joe Sestak, would beat Toomey, too.
The rumor is that a poll coming today will show that Ridge could beat Toomey in a GOP primary. And it’s anything but clear that Specter could prevail over Ridge in a general.
Bottom line: Whatever benefits the Specter switch gives to Dems in the short term, it’s not even clear that the Dem establishment’s embrace of Specter guarantees them a sure general election winner and a long-term lock on the seat.
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I’ll tell you what, as a PA resident, unless he cleans his act up soon, I will not be voting for him in the Primary.
Ridge will never make it out of a primary with Toomey. Remember that Toomey almost beat Specter the last go around and the Club for Growth specialize in taking down incumbent Republicans and or Republicans who are moderate. Regardless unless the economy is still tanking next year I think whichever Democrat comes out of the primary will take the general. You seem to be genuinely disturbed about Specter crossing the aisle. What gives?
SG — I don’t have a problem with Specter crossing over. But unless he actually supports Dem positions, it doesn’t do Dems any real good.
Is there any reason why Dems SHOULDN’T be pressuring him to back their positions? How are they going to do this, short of threatening a primary and letting him know his support is not to be taken for granted?
Greg, from the last thread on this:
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Seems to me Arlen’s vote on EFCA is meaningless. What counts is his vote on cloture. If Specter blocks any vote on the floor, he’s doomed.
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But my assumption was always that Obama and Specter came to some sort of understanding about votes on bills vs. votes on cloture.
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Now, if all Specter does is block everything, this will sort itself out pretty quickly, as no Dem primary will see Sestak lose to an obstructionist.
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Also, I don’t see how Ridge makes it out of the primary when the whole kerfuffle is about far right ideologues purging the party of people like Tom Ridge.
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Of course, maybe Arlen’s problem is that people just don’t like the *******.
Greg
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I am all for pressuring the guy with the prospect of a primary. I am just not convinced that he got some kind of guarantee that he wouldn’t face one. Remember that according to the story he wasn’t being pressured to cross the aisle around the time when he made his decision. He got his polling numbers back that Friday and decided nothing was going to change and bolted. Now I know I am repeating myself here but no matter what we would have needed either Specter’s or Collins’ or Snowe’s vote for cloture on most major issues even if he didn’t cross. So perhaps we get that vote a little bit easier now that he is on our side of the aisle. But I keep coming back to the one undeniable point, Specter wants to get reelected. Thats what this whole thing is about. So as long as we let him know that if he doesn’t get with the program he won’t make it out of the primary I can’t see him bucking the system. However on the other hand I feel like if he believes that no matter what he does or how he votes everyone will still be gunning for him in the primary then he won’t have any incentive to get with the program. Sticks AND carrots is all I am saying.
SG — I’m trying to figure out exactly what, if any, pressure, is being exerted on others to stay out of the race…
PA here – I won’t ever cast a vote for Spector. His party affiliation has nothing to do with it.
Greg
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So far Torcella (sic) says he is still in, and Sestak said he doesn’t give a d@mn what the party says, if he sees Specter flaking he is going all in. Of course having more than one alternative in a race against Specter may work to our detriment as they might split the vote in a primary. But we can cross that when we get to it. At this point I can’t see anybody being so stupid as to try to push people to drop out. The outcry from liberals would be deafening.
I believe things have changed so fast most of the party poobahs on both sides are still living in the past. There’s an army of young people out there who have known only the Bush/Republican disaster, and the Obama/Democratic success, and thousands of their friends and brothers and sisters are turning 18 every day. On the other side, every day an elderly life-long Republican passes on to the great beyond, and no one is replacing him.
Proof is in both the Franken election and the NY Special in the 20th. As an incumbent, Coleman should have won going away, and with a 70,000 voter Republican edge, the 20th should not have been competitive in a Special.
The Republican party is dead. They just don’t know it yet. And every one of those 18-year-olds represents another nail in the coffin.
God, a Specter/Ridge race? Talk about “there’s no differnece between the two candidates.”