Poll: Independents Trust Obama — Not GOP — On Big Issues
One of the running themes of this blog (and many others) is the deepening isolation of the GOP, which is partly fueled by the drift of independents towards President Obama and Dems.
I’ve now received some new polling that seems to bear this out: On four big issues, majoritites of independents trust Obama, while small minorities trust GOPers in Congress.
This week’s big Washington Post poll asked respondents who they trust to handle health care, the economy, the budget deficit, and terrorism. The poll didn’t include a partisan breakdown, but WaPo’s polling director sent it over to us, and here’s where indys stand:
* On health care, 51% of indys trust Obama, and 26% trust GOPers in Congress.
* On the economy, 51% of indys trust Obama, and 31% trust the GOP.
* On the budget deficit, 52% of indys trust Obama, and 30% trust the GOP.
* And on terrorism, 53% of indys trust Obama, and 36% trust the GOP.
To recap: On every one of these major issues — even terrorism — majorities of indys trust Obama, and small minorities trust Congressional Republicans. Given that pundits often wonder whether all-hallowed independents will be turned off by Obama’s ambitious agenda, you’d think this storyline would enter the media narrative.
One other thing: These numbers do not bear out what I suggested yesterday — the apparent movement of rank-and-file Republicans away from their leaders on key issues. In this breakdown, GOPers are strongly aligned with their leadership.
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Since 2006 the increase in self-identifying independents has mirrored the decrease in self-identifying republicans. So a large section of those independents from the poll considered themselves republicans until very recently. And those who continue to self-identify as republican are the hard-core.
Polling on issues represent a problem because they seem to be all over the place. A majority wants a public health plan, another majority is worried about the deficit; and now independents take another tack. The problem is that the polls are only useful when when each side wants to buttress an argument which they have already advanced.
We might want to be careful because next week there will be another poll saying the opposite. Anyway the Republicans have mastered the art of selective choices; while the Democrats have yet to master the art of unifying around three or four issues.
Greg, you clearly haven’t made the full transition to become big media Greg. The correct way to issue a correction as a member in good standing of the msm is to place it where no one will ever see it. Perhaps as a comment in the offending thread that no one is reading any more?
Greg
Without having seen the internals I would suggest that you not throw away your framiing all together from yeserday. What I thought was smart about your analysis was that you drew a bright line between the moderate and liberal republicans and the uber conservatives. And the truth is that is one thing you don’t see very often when we all talk about polls. Because we all assume that the conservative wing of the GOP vastly outnumbers the other wings many times we almost act as if liberal and moderate Republicans don’t really even count. But when it comes down to it they really should be included in any discussion of the “base” of the Republican Party. In point of fact I bet if someone did an analysis it would show that moderate and liberal Republicans no matter how big or small their numbers may be are just as reliable voters for Republicans as their conservative counterparts in the party. And by dismissing any but the most conservative elements of the Republican party we essentially allow the GOP an excuse for their ridiculous stances on many issues. “Well they were just following what their base wanted” is just too easy an excuse for these fools to hide behind nowadays.
SG — agreed, definitely not dropping that framing. I think it’s worth keeping an eye on. In fact, I suspect that what we’re seeing here is GOPers saying they trust their party GENERALLY on issues but parting ways with the leadership on policy specifics…and wvng — heh — no worries, this isn’t a correction