Do Top Obama Officials Differ On Whether Iran Is Trying To Get Nukes?
The Obama administration seems to be edging towards fully adopting the position that Iran is definitely trying to develop nuclear weapons — but there also seems to be lingering disagreement between top Obama officials and his choice for leader of the intelligence community about the precise nature of Iran’s intentions.
Earlier this week, while announcing a new diplomatic push on Iran, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the following:
“We believe that pursuing very careful engagement on a range of issues that affect our interests and the interests of the world with Iran makes sense. There’s nothing more important than trying to convince Iran to cease its efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon.”
That’s unequivocal: Hillary stated that Iran is currently making “efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon.” But here’s what Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair said last month:
“Although we do not know whether Iran currently intends to develop nuclear weapons, we assess Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop them.”
Blair says that “we do not know” whether Iran intends to develop nukes, but is keeping the option to do so open. Hillary appears clearly to be going farther than Blair here.
Asked about the apparent disparity, a spokesperson for Blair told me he stands by his remarks, but argued that everyone was on the same page.
The apparent difference is significant, because it raises the question of whether the view that Iran is definitely in the hunt for nukes goes farther than the judgment of the intelligence community. In late 2007, the intelligence community released a National Intelligence Estimate concluding that “we do not know” whether Iran “currently intends to develop nuclear weapons” — language echoed almost word for word by Blair last month.
Some political observers have speculated that officials such as Hillary — who seemingly go further than this and say Iran is definitely trying to develop nukes — are trying to protect against attacks of naivete from the right, giving Obama cover to pursue diplomatic engagement. Obama himself has edged in this direction, saying in Prague over the weekend that Iran’s nuclear activity “persists” and “poses a real threat.”
But, again, for now, it’s unclear if his top intelligence official agrees with this.
Update: More on why this matters right here.
The homepage of this blog is here. RSS feed here. Twitter feed here. Email me here.
We must resist the temptation to take every statement on Iran and over-analyze it. Some of the pressure for American statements comes from the usual suspects at one end of the Mediterranean.
Well they have to appease AIPAC don’t they?
I would genuinely like to know two things:
1) What does the Intel community now think?
2) What is the official position of the Obama administration on this question, and is it in line with the Intel community’s judgment?
Is Iran trying to develop nukes? Of course it is. How hard are they trying? That’s the $64k question.
When you anthropomorphize an organization with many competing voices into a single “person” with an intent, that person is necessarily schizophrenic. (See your typical corporation.)
.
There can be a lot more uncertainty about Iran’s intent than about its observed efforts.
.
Let me add this: It may be that Iran’s intent is not so much to acquire nukes as to use those continuing efforts as a bargaining chip to achieve more-normalized relations with the US and the West.
.
“Of course it is”? I would really like for you to quantify your certainty on the issue. Aquiring a nuclear weapon would basically destroy Iran and they know it. At least the mullahs know it. If they get a weapon they lose all the cover they now enjoy from Russia and China. Its likely that they won’t dismiss the notion just so we can keep fretting over it and elevating them much higher in foreign policy than they warrant but in my opinion its highly doubtful that they are seeking a nuclear weapon at this point.
.
On the other hand they might be wiling to sell some nuclear material to terrorists but thats a whole other argument.
I think at yesterdays press conference Hillary was asked about Iran`s nuclear program and she said that there are various estimates about Iranian nuclear program and they are unsure what to believe.
So while I think the equivocation by Hillary may be part of the strategy of sounding tough while reaching out. But I guess if make it seem that Iran is further along than it is then you also give Iran more bargaining power – and Israel more incentive of bluster.
I dunno what the strategy is and whether it is smart, I just don`t think that administration officials are on different pages with regard to the intelligence.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1857622883?bctid=19102592001
Irans nuclear program started with the blessings of the us because it makes economic sense. Many countries such as Brazil and Argentina are doing the same thing. The IAEA has found zero evidence of a weapons program in Iran. That’s why we instead have all the mindless speculation about “intentions” rather than facts. The US deliberately conflates nuclear energy programs with nykes to scaremonger. The Iranians have offered to open their program to international participation. Why not accept that instead of all this speculation and hype? Answer: because we really want to monopolize nuclear fuel production under the guise of preventing nuke proliferation.
It would have been so nice if the Dick hadn’t shut down the CIA program to monitor WMD for political reasons (Valerie Plame.) Then we might have a better idea of what is going on, but then that crew that screwed up so badly these last eight years never actually put America’s welfare first. It was always consolidating power into their own hands.
How can any liberal say Iran is NOT trying… Just watch the Charlie Rose Show with the 35 year Manhattan D.A. and the D.A.’s statement that only 6 weeks ago, he intercepted and fined Lloyds bank $250 million for burying ownership in a transaction to buy WMD and strategic alloys in a front company shipping to IRAN !!! The D.A. calls IRAN the #1 terrorist threat he sees to this country. GROW UP you youngsters….the MULLAH’s run & control that country !!! I guess you youngsters are just waiting for one NUKE to spoil your whole day !