Despite Public Option Waffling, Obama’s Support Among Democrats Goes Up During August
If White House advisers are calculating that they can disappoint liberals with health care concessions without ultimately losing the support of the Dem base, new polling suggests they could be on to something.
Despite weeks of news reports about Obama possibly dropping the public option and otherwise being conciliatory towards Republicans, Obama’s support among Democrats has actually gone up since earlier this summer, according to crosstabs from the new Ipsos-McClatchy poll that were sent my way.
Obama’s approval among Dems was at 95% in May; then it dropped sharply to 82% in early August; but then it rebounded considerably, going up to 88% now, according to Ipsos’ Clifford Young, who provided me with the numbers. (The poll found that Obama’s approval overall was 56%, marginally unchanged since last month.)
These numbers are a bit counterintuitive, since many (myself included) assumed that Obama’s continued outreach to Republicans despite their open obstructionism, and his apparent waffling on the public option, had caused liberals to sour on him big time.
But Obama’s August rebound actually suggests that the month of town hall hooliganism and GOP attacks rallied the Dem base, perhaps offsetting disappointment among progressives.
So maybe the White House is banking on a similar dynamic for September: Even if Obama reaches a health care compromise with concessions that anger libs, the inevitable escalation of attacks from GOPers and anti-reform groups could hold the Dem base together. We’ll see.
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To be honest, this doesn’t entirely surprise me. You say Obama has been “waffling” about the public option, yet by never drawing a line in the sand earlier I don’t think his support could ever be considered all that firm to begin with. Same goes for negotiating with with Republicans, considering his campaign was one of outreach and governing all of America not just a red or blue one. Now, that being said there is certainly no small amount of kabuki going on here in which Obama is putting up a front of bending over backwards in order to bring down the hammer (hopefully beginning with his speech next week).
All of that is complete speculation of course, but it is at least as likely to be accurate as him taking a “tough” stance against his own party by telling them to shut up and take what they can get. Without a significant victory in health care Dem ranks will be thinned, Obama is a pretty shrewd politician and making a late game push when the pressure is up and attention is much more focused than it was in August is likely to close the deal.
Can he do it? Despite the Village inanity of giving soap boxes to the like of Dick and Liz Cheney while decrying the over ambition of Barack Obama. I mean, in what world is starting two wars not ambitious, yet trying to give something to American’s at home is so outrageous that we hear cries of revolution and secession?
Excuse the typos, I haven’t had my coffee yet.
As a hard core Obama supporter, I have realized that getting him elected was only half the battle. Unfortunately an African American President faces challenges, born out of racism, that are likely to continue until the day he leaves office. This is not going to be an “easy” 4 or 8 years because in addition to fighting the garden variety dirty tricks and political battles, Obama will always face insidious racist messages (racial swift boating). Its going to require immense vigilance on the behalf of his supporters.
But the bright side is that we will all be better off because of it.
Greg:
These numbers are a bit counterintuitive, since many (myself included) assumed that Obama’s continued outreach to Republicans…
What are some examples of this outreach?
heather:
But the bright side is that we will all be better off because of it.
Blaming Obama’s political troubles on racism is not going to make anyone better off. It alienates the vast majority people whose opposition to Obama has nothing to do with his skin color and it prevents Obama and his supporters from seeing and hence correcting his own deficiencies.
Not that he cares, but if Obama abandons the public option, I am finished with him. It is just as I predicted before the election. When the going gets tough, Obama makes a pretty speech. These times require LEADERSHIP and Obama isn’t showing much, IMHO.
And yes, it is only his 8th month, but so far there are multiple examples of failure to keep promises and live up to his fancy campaign rhetoric. I supported him because he was better than McCain/Palin by orders of magnitude, but I don’t like the bus tracks on my back from the bus he’s thrown progressives under on his way to unattainable and undesirable bipartisanship.
Scott C. I agree! I am not racist. I was excited and gratified to see a charismatic African American in the WH. But he isn’t leading, he is pandering to special interests and being led around by the nose by Wall Stree, big insurance, big pharma, and Rahm.
msmolly:
“I am not racist. I was excited and gratified to see a charismatic African American in the WH.”
Really…you think that that’s not racist?
Mr. Sargent:
“These numbers are a bit counterintuitive, since many (myself included) assumed that Obama’s continued outreach to Republicans despite their open obstructionism, and his apparent waffling on the public option, had caused liberals to sour on him big time”
So what is it, up is down and down is up?
The guy REALLY needed the Liberal wing for his primary run…to knock off the UberFrauFuhrer, and in the general against McLame.
But as a sitting President, he shouldn;t have to worry about a primary challenger again, (unless you lot want to complete the “Carter II meme” and run another Kennedy).
So basically, he can put y’all’s wants and desires on the back shelf now because he doesn;t personally need you anymore…and it’s not like you’re going anywhere.
Sure…you could stay home in ‘10 and ‘12…and watch the GOP grab the Brass Ring again?
I think not.
That’s exactly what I’m going to do. Stay home in 2010! As a hard core Obama supporter I’m not going to accept any compromises with the party that LOST! PERIOD! He’s told us for 2 years that a public option was the center piece of his administration. With a huge majority in each branch, I’m hard pressed to understand why he’s allowing them to dictate Democratic legislation. While I would never vote for Republican, and yes, many of whom are racists along with their supporters, I’m not voting for the Dems again if they can’t prove capable of leading!
“Bilgeman”: you are so blindingly brilliant, so proud of your cleverness as a right-wing troll/hack on this site, that the rest of us are just in awe of you. And that’s why the postings have declined in number: After you speak, there’s nothing left to say!
Roxsteady: AMEN. I wasn’t exactly a “hard core” Obama supporter, but I preferred him to Hilary for a lot of reasons. Color me disappointed.
# Bilgeman | September 3rd, 2009 at 09:17 am
Really…you think that that’s not racist?
:scroll, scroll, scroll:
I white house probably figures that no matter what they do, the libs may stay home, but definitely won’t switch sides. It’d be nice if we could have some sort of multiparty system. They might be a little more inclined to have a coherent message if there was a viable alternative. But republicans went off the deep end into religion and conservative dogma, meaning Dems can do most anything with little political backlash.
He’s losing me. I’m a former Deaniac and avid Obama supporter. I should have known when he chose Rahmbo that I was headed for disappointment. So far I’ve been on the money. It breaks my heart but this I swear…if he sells us out on health care I’m no longer a supporter. My hearts been broken too many times by my party. Fool me once…twice…how many more times…shame on me.
Can anyone reconcile these two things for me? Obama says he’s willing to be a 1 term pres over health reform. But there’s no doubt he gets a second term if he gets a public option, since it’s the most popular and the best available policy. So I have to ask, why would you want to be a 1 term president giving people the kind of reform they don’t want?
I always hear this from politicians. If you do what your constituents ask, you’ll stay in office, especially if what they want is the best course of action.
Cheney has given money to some of the people that are doing the “independant” investigation.
I think we know the outcome of this investigation then…..its amazing what goes on in Wash DC.
Scott C. said: “Blaming Obama’s political troubles on racism is not going to make anyone better off”
Yes and no. I don’t perceive racism as causal in the full-frontal attack on Obama’s presidency. The same strategies, though less well organized and funded, were applied against Clinton and would have been set against any Dem president, Hillary, Biden or anyone. The fundamental “problem” is a Democrat in the WH and more acutely, a resurgence of a progressive or liberal concensus within the nation.
On the other hand, anyone watching the American political world from the point of Obama’s declaration to run, has seen continual and deep evidences of racism as both a feature of American culture and as a political strategy to move voters away from him and to motivate that portion of the conservative base who are swayed by such racist appeals for the perceived gains in activism and anti-Obama sentiment that might be realized.
For example, the PUMA/Clintons4McCain activism pushed and often organized by the RNC and promoted most obviously by Limbaugh, had websites littered with racist imagery (Obama with bone through nose) and commentary.
The denial or handy blindness to both of these phenomenon wll surely not make anyone better off. Except perhaps Republican electoral hopes.
I’m with those of you who say you’re through with Obama and the Democrats if we end up without the public option. The Republicans he bailed out in the financial industry are all living large and still hating him while I, who needs the public option and spent money I didn’t have to get him elected, feel conned, badly.
To roxsteady, msmolly, and hoosierville, I too am upset at the potential loss of the public option. I was not an initial supporter of Sen. Obama during the primaries, but supported him strongly once he won the nomination.
However, I’d like to ask you to rethink your positions on not voting during the next several elections. This is far too important a right to concede to those who do not think about the issues and consequences of elections. My mother was born just 2 years after women got the right to vote, and she drummed into me that this is one of the most important things you can do as a citizen. She dragged herself out to vote just 3 days before she died– on the way home from the hospital. I’m 57 and am proud to say that I’ve missed only 2 elections in my life– one because I had emergency surgery the day before, and the other because it was the day after I moved to a different state.
I am now the chief Democratic judge in my home precinct. I live in a very conservative Congressional district, and we barely managed to elect a “blue dog” Democrat in November. I knew from the start that he would not vote to my wishes all of the time, but I know that his voting pattern is vastly better than what his opponent’s would have been. It would have been literally impossible to elect someone more liberal.
The health care bill when finally passed will not be perfect. I think it would be a moral shame to NOT include health care for all Americans. However, we may need to take this one step at a time. Pres. Obama quoted Voltaire by saying, “Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.” He was right.
Don’t let disappointments negate your right, and your will, to vote.
You can fool some of the people all of the time.
@Mary – and your next step to achieving your policy goals are what, exactly?
@Dori – pleased to meet you. I concur. I’m sure you’ve bumped into Voltaire’s famous deathbed quote (I’ll assume it true though there is no youtube video) but if not…
The Jesuit priest in attendance – and of course, he was so much smarter than pretty much anyone else around at the time and had caused the church and the order a fair bit of trouble – asked Voltaire if he was now finally ready to denounce the devil. Voltairs responded “This is no time to be making new enemies.”
Doofus:
““Bilgeman”: you are so blindingly brilliant, so proud of your cleverness as a right-wing troll/hack on this site, that the rest of us are just in awe of you. And that’s why the postings have declined in number: After you speak, there’s nothing left to say!”
Thanks for the encomium.
A person as blunt as myself gets so few of them,,,
You didn’t have anything else to say?
msmolly:
“:scroll, scroll, scroll:”
Awww, at least put a little thought into it:
“Scroll, scroll, scroll your boat…”
Better wear your crash helmet, Ms. “not a racist”.
Scott C. said: “Blaming Obama’s political troubles on racism is not going to make anyone better off”
I don’t blame Obama’s political troubles on race but I see daily how race is used as bait to negatively define Obama and the issues he is fighting for.
We are going to be better off as a country if we admit it when it happens and talk about it and expose it as often as possible. We will better off as individuals as we examine our own subtle issues with race. Our children will benefit as they grow up in a society that is more honest about race than the one we grew up in.
@Dori: Haven’t seen you here before but you sound like one of the more brilliant on the left around these parts. You are correct.
It seems quite obvious to me that Obama’s primary motivation is always to amass/maintain power. With regards to h/c reform he accomplishes this by ultimately signing a weak bill that blue dogs and independents can support.
Thank you, Bernie! I like that deathbed quote, and no, I hadn’t heard it, so thanks for passing it on!
SBJ, thanks for the compliment. I’ve posted here on occasion, but have no interest in name-calling or insults– from either side of the debate. I love this country deeply, and believe that those on the conservative side do too– we’re just coming from opposite directions, with the same goal in mind: to make this a better place to live. I’ve always felt that with ad hominem attacks you simply wind up turning off the people in the middle, especially those who MIGHT be leaning toward your side of the discussion.
I’m old enough (barely) to remember the days of Eisenhower and Everett Dirksen, before the days of people like Lee Atwater and Newt Gingrich. I miss the days when the party out of power (whichever it was) was thought of as “the loyal opposition,” rather than The Enemy. Life’s far too short for that.
Then again, having a kid with a mental disability tends to put your priorities in order.
Bernie:
The fundamental “problem” is a Democrat in the WH…
Agreed.
On the other hand, anyone watching the American political world from the point of Obama’s declaration to run, has seen continual and deep evidences of racism as both a feature of American culture and as a political strategy…For example, the PUMA/Clintons4McCain activism pushed and often organized by the RNC and promoted most obviously by Limbaugh, had websites littered with racist imagery (Obama with bone through nose) and commentary.
I would have to see more evidence than pictures on a few websites to convince me that racism remains either a significant feature of American culture or a viable political strategy engaged in by any serious players on the national level.
Let’s name names. Who within the McCain campaign was guilty of propagating racism as an effort to defeat Obama, and how? And who within the opposition today is using racism against Obama, and how?
Obviously it would be difficult to demonstrate, but my guess is that Bush-as-a-Nazi propaganda has more appeal within the Democratic party than racist propaganda has within the Republican party.
heather:
I don’t blame Obama’s political troubles on race but I see daily how race is used as bait to negatively define Obama and the issues he is fighting for.
Can you provide an example from yesterday?
Dori….oh I’ll vote, it’s not in my nature not to, too many control issues I guess. I just won’t be making contributions and GOTV, etc. etc. Too many betrayals by the party apparachniks. I was in Iowa with Howard Dean and watched my own party destroy their best candidate…at least he sounded like a damned Democrat. This is just “deja vu all over again” for me and I’m sick of it. I love this president and all the hopes and dreams he represents. I just can’t take another betrayal.
Scott C.: Fair question.
Every day the right wing media is pursuing the theme that Obama is an “outsider.” Some insist that he was born in either Kenya or Indonesia (doesn’t matter which). Others pretend that he is really a Muslim. The important point is that he is different than “us.”
I believe that this racially tinged and purposely plays upon people racial stereo types and fears. At its core racism is a fear of people who are different. By focusing on all the ways in which Obama is perceived to be different (real and imaginary)the media and the wing nuts can talk about race without talking about race.
Yesterdays news:
Fears of “indoctrination” and “brainwashing”of school children in presidential talk.
August News:
Glen Beck calls Obama racist (in other words Obama doesn’t like white people)
Pat Buchanan call Sotomayor racist. (in other words Supreme Court Justice doesn’t like white people)
Pat Buchanan and others allude to similarities between Obama and Hitler.
Teabaggers signs are filled with Obama hate.
Birther movement is a inherently racist political action.
Using his middle name as a way to make a point.
Even the mock outrage by press that Obama would stick up for his friend over a white police officer…the expectation seemed to be that he should overlook the fact that most of his male friends have been profiled more than once in their life. That Obama should turn a color-blind eye to a public example of profiling..
Sorry Scott, but its every where everyday but as Charlie Ranglel just learned its not a winning political issue, and its not the way Obama campaigns or governs. But that doesn’t make it any less real.
Think of the reaction to fist bump….
Oh and there is this:
BECK: This president, I think, has exposed himself as a guy, over and over and over again, who has a deep-seed hatred for white people or the white culture.
LIMBAUGH: Here you have a black president trying to destroy a white policeman. I think he is genuinely revved up about race. You know me. I think he is genuinely angry in his heart and has been his whole life.
MALKIN: I think he is a racial opportunist.
LIMBAUGH: Look, I had a dream. I had a dream that I was a slave building a sphinx in a desert that looked like Obama.
BECK: He has a problem. He has a – this guy is, I believe, a racist.
LIMBAUGH: And after that, they‘re going to go after Oreos. Might have to put that off until Obama is out of office, but they‘ll eventually go after Oreos.
heather:
Consider your logic, and its implications.
Two examples, according to you, of racism on the right:
Glen Beck calls Obama a racist, and Pat Buchanan calls Sotomayor a racist.
So, apparently, you believe that calling someone a racist is evidence of the speaker’s racism. Yet you yourself accused the right in general of racism. Does that make you a racist? If not, why not?
BTW, this:
Fears of “indoctrination” and “brainwashing”of school children in presidential talk.
…has nothing to do with race. It has to do with worries about leftist indoctrination. I am bewildered at how it might be racist to oppose leftist indoctrination of children.
OK. Nevermind then.
Scott C. – I don’t have much free time today (pretty creatures keep walking in and trying on our jewelry – it’s a tough life I lead).
Racism is undeniably a feature of American culture still. You aren’t unique, of course. In Canada there’s a comparable situation but involving native north americans (disproportionate rates of incarceration, etc). The history of this racism is really pretty awful with families forced apart, children denied the opportunity to learn their own languages, etc. This is less than it was 50 years ago or even 30 years ago but it is still very real and consequential.
When I come across denial of the facts or the depth of such african american racism in the US from a white person, I’m immediately skeptical in the same manner than I am when I see males trying to insist they understand the situation of women better than those women themselves. Colin Powell was recently asked if he’d personally experienced such racism and he responded, “Of course”. No ambiguity. How would you manage to insist that your familiarity with this situation might be greater or more accurate than his?
To imply, as you did above, that such imagery as I mentioned is on merely a ‘few’ websites is a misrepresentation of the amount of such imagery and sentiment.
ps…the coercive agency involved in those situation above with native canadians was mainly the Catholic Church in Canada (with government complicity certainly).
Bernie:
How would you manage to insist that your familiarity with this situation might be greater or more accurate than his?
I don’t know what “this situation” refers to specifically, and whether or not I accepted Powell’s claim wihtout question would depend on the specifics. If he said that “of course” he had been called a n***** to his face at some point in his life, I would of course believe him. But, for example, if he said that “of course” he had been subject to the same kind of racism as Henry Louis Gates at the hands of the Cambridge police, I wouldn’t since it isn’t at all clear to me that Gates was the victim of anything but his own self-importance. The perception of racism is not necessarily actual racism.
Does racism exist in the US? Of course, it always will. Is racism a significant feature of modern American culture? I don’t see any evidence of it, and I see lots of evidence that anything with even the faintest tint of racism is condemned roundly. Is racism a feature of Republican national electoral strategies? Again, not that I can see. Like I said, if you think it is, give me some examples of people in the McCain campaign or the RNC engaging in such strategies in the last election.
Paul W.: Your typos are no problem at all. Many great writers can’t spell. But your sentence grammar makes it hard to understand your points.
I supported Obama, but I can’t see this “reform” as a step forward. It has some nice features sans the public option; on the other hand, it fattens further the “enemy,” the industry getting richer and richer from illness. I should say, they don’t really profit from illness unless they can weasel out of paying benefits. But if they are really lucky, they definitely profit from a speedy death. Where is the outrage? Why are more not speaking about their disgust with this? It may be because many people have not yet experienced the unhappy state of being a sick patient in the hands of private insurance.
My life will be changed radically for the better with a public option. It will give me independence and security. If not–then not.