Approval Of Obama Drops Sharply Among Dems As Support For Public Option Rises
Here’s a number from the new Washington Post/ABC News poll that Dems won’t be sending around to reporters:
Obama’s approval ratings on health-care reform are slipping among his fellow Democrats even as they are solidifying among independents and seniors. Among Democrats, strong approval of his handling of the issue has dropped 15 percentage points since mid-September.
That’s a very steep drop, and one has to wonder whether it’s directly related to the refusal by Obama and his top aides to say that he’s fighting for the public option and adamantly wants it in the final bill. After all, the very same poll finds that a strong majority of Dems, 68%, wants a bill with a public option in it, even if it has no Republican support.
No doubt some Washington wise men would say it doesn’t matter if Obama’s numbers are slipping among Dems, since they’ll eventually “come home.” But if the Dem base is less than enthusiastic about Obama and his performance on what is arguably his most important domestic initiative yet, that could negatively impact the Dem performance during the 2010 midterms.
And these numbers do suggest that punting on the public option could dampen the Dem rank and file’s enthusiasm heading into 2010. On the other hand, if they come through on the public option, that could go some way towards solving some problems with the base that have erupted over other issues.
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@Greg
“one has to wonder whether it’s directly related to the refusal by Obama and his top aides to say that he’s fighting for the public option and adamantly wants it in the final bill.”
No wondering about it – that’s exactly it. It’s such a clear win-lose senario for Dems, it just boggles the mind if they don’t see it.
Pass a strong public option – makes the base estatic, supported by the majority of the American public, helps in mid-term elections, better for the country’s health care system.
Don’t pass a public option – demoralize base completely, ignore public opinion, break a major campaign promise, take even bigger loses during the mid-terms, force millions who already can’t afford insurance to buy it, perpetuate the same health care system that we’ve had for the past several decades.
There’s no rational arguement anymore. For-Profit health care has failed in this Country. It’s time to offer some real competition with a public option, and if the private sector can’t keep up, then Single-Payer and move on.
Both PO and 2010 haven’t happened yet. So, these polls based on hypotheticals, is just that.
It isn’t “approval” for Obama that has dropped sharply but rather the drop is from “strongly approve”. Those Dems have moved from “strongly” to “okay”.
I agree that putting a public option in the final bill will ENERGIZE Democrats particularly for the 2010 elections. Not putting one in even if there is a bill passed will likely dampen the enthusiasm but NOT passing a bill will have Dems STAYING HOME in 2010.
If I was the betting man in the White House, I’d look at those incredible negative numbers for the GOP caucus in Congress and feel that I had room to do whatever I wanted, within reason. I’d think that any course of action I took politically would still gain cover behind the historic unpopularity of Congressional GOPS–High Negs. and only 19% Net positives? Whoah–those guys are less popular than Swine Flu.
Bottom line, the President has ample room to shun his base, these numbers say.
I’m a progressive who still supports Obama but I certainly reserve judgement. The man has been in office less than a year and other than style (which I admit has been an important Nobel prize winning change) other than the stimulus (admittedly very important)nothing has yet been accomplished. I don’t say this negatively…more factually…give the man some time. I agree with amk
“Both PO and 2010 haven’t happened yet. So, these polls based on hypotheticals, is just that.”
The same is true for Afghanistan…he is still mulling his options…let’s give him some time and see what he ACTUALLY does.
No P.O. and escalating the war in Afghanistan will definitely cost him my support…not my vote…really what choice do I have…but I doubt I click the little button in his emails and send any more cash. But as amk points out I don’t wish to criticize him on hypotheticsls…let’s give him some time.
Two things can really boost the Obama approval across the board: a clear decision on Afghanistan strategy and an accompanying speech explaining what our goals are there, and getting House and Senate legislation passed and into conference. From there we can start pivoting to climate change and refocusing on the economy/finance regulation.
I am sure President and his team haven’t lost the touch of reading polls. His framing of sending troops of afghan by tying it to the Presidential election there is a smart tactic. It has already resonated well with taliban (you may not love them, but they ain’t going anywhere).
Unlike dumsfeld’s (and shrub’s) summary rejection of request for additional troops in Iraq (hh, how quickly the wingnuts forget that), he didn’t indulge in the crappy quick on the draw cowboy jingoistic sanction of additional troops. That gets a big vote with indies and center americans, imo.
Yup. Polls, at this point, don’t trouble me much. Longer term trends (GOP decline, job figures) gather up my attention rather more.
But, from reading folks who know more about this than me, I’m alert to the possibility that a highly activated and older Republican base will be more likely to get out to vote in a year than many of those new or younger voters important to Dem chances. Still, a year is a very long time and we are going to see lots of stuff going on between now and then.
This day to day up and down look at polls (there must be some people making off this now almost daily output)doesn’t worry me. Lots of hypotheticals. I will wait to see the end product of the health care bill. I want a strong and cost- conscious public option.
I won’t vote for for a Republican; but if someone tells me “where can you go” my reply will be I can stay at home. If we can’t do much with control of all three places then we don’t deserve to govern. And my finger will not go to paypal the way it did during the last campaign.
Tired of being taken for granted.
amk
Speaking of Rumsfeld, here’s an interesting article from Greenwald this morning. A stark reminder of why it’s not always in our best interest to be seen as occupiers of a Muslim country.
“We can’t combat Terrorism by sending our military into Muslim countries. Doing that only exacerbates the problem, since it inevitably intensifies the anti-American sentiment that enables and fuels the terrorist threat in the first place. All of that is so basic. It’s been empirically proven over and over during the last decade. It’s not Noam Chomsky or Al Jazeera pointing out these basic truths, but instead, a 2004 Task Force handpicked by Donald Rumsfeld’s Pentagon to review and assess the Bush administration’s anti-terrorism efforts, principally the wars they were waging in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/10/20/terrorism/
I think Alan hits a key point here — lack of Dem enthusiasm could hurt turnout and fundraising. The public option would largely preempt that possibility.
The only poll I really care about right now is the one that shows the public’s favorability for the Public Option. Once we get that, we can move on to the President’s favorability polls.
I’m with BBQ a little bit on this one. I think there are a number of things causing the Dem slide. HCR, DADT, Gitmo, and of course job recovery, all play into this one.
Democrats, including myself, say you can’t fix 8 years of Bush in 8 months, forgetting that we are just as impatient about results as well.
Get HCR passed with a public option and get rid of DADT and I think they will “come home.” Don’t do either of the above and 2010 is bleak.
Greg – Agreed. Given the job situation doesn’t remain as it is.
By the by…Republicans are protesting the sheer size of the medical reform bill. “Too long”, they complain.
Hard not to agree. I think this was God’s fundamental error with the Holy Bible.
Agree with Chris and everyone else, next year’s election will be about progress made this year. If there is nothing to run on then the GOP will likely still have enough fire in its belly to exact some real pain on the Dem majority in the House. I don’t see a reversion to a Republican chamber though, unless a worst case economic situation occurs.
lmsinca – So are you saying that dumbsfeld went by handpicked task force’s recommendation in denying additional troops in Iraq ? It’s possible the MF’er used that as a CYA (for his denial over troops) while inconveniently ignoring the fundamental truth of “We can’t combat Terrorism by sending our military into Muslim countries”. The whole Iraq war cooked up on lies was for one major purpose. Looting both US and Iraq.
Good point Bernie. Some have been reading the Bible for 2000 years and still have disagreements on what its’ content entails.
All, here’s another dimension to this:
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/republican-national-committee/gop-boosting-small-donors-as-dem-base-sours-on-partys-public-option-waffling/
I’m agreeing with you amk. The whole Pentagon report shows the hypocrisy and cherry picking attitude of Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld to reach their desired results. They always ignored the main point that occupying a Muslim country is a risky adventure at best.
@Chris:
I’m with you on the other issues as well…but the public option is by far the most visiable and broad issue at work right now. The impatience is for everything, sure, but that’s the biggest factor.
I really see this as an oppotunity. He’s playing the “bipartisan” card and the Republicans have been playing the “scream no” card. And everyone sees it for what it is, politics as usual. While the President’s (and Dems in Congress) approvals have faltered…Republican’s approvals haven’t moved. They sit there at the bottom of the barrel, like the last fish that no one wants to buy.
So when push comes to shove, if/when we get a public option in the final bill – watch those approval numbers jump. All the stories about his horrible numbers (which are still great numbers, btw) will look like idiots because all the diseffected Dems will be shouting from the rooftops in joy.
Then we’ll get to the next issue to in-fight about. lol.
It’s the economy… until the job recovery begins..in earnest, and folks start seeing their 401’s return to where they were along with the value of their homes… then which-ever party is in power is in the hot-seat and can expect some bad poll numbers.
It’s really that simple. The unfortunate thing about the stimulus… is it hasn’t had much of a tangible effect.
Lotsa bad news out there. All that talk about helping people avoiding foreclosure and all… seems to have been mostly talk. Sure thats the banks fault – but people will blame those is power.
Fix the economy, everything is rosy. If it remains a rough ride – then look forward to opening your library early.
What makes HCR such a hard sell is the continued polarizing of our nation… brought about equally by the left and the right. Just think of it Mr. Sargent – if you reported on how the Right and the Left were sitting down together and working things out… that’d be boring news and no one would read your blog. Controversy sells.. and everyone is a salesman. From Obama, to Pelosi, to McCain, to Drudge, to the NYT etc…
You know where it ends? It ends in a public that is so jaded, that they stop listening – and the right & left are then dominated by their Fringe elements… which, I think, is just about where we are today.
” He’s playing the “bipartisan” card and the Republicans have been playing the “scream no” card.”
Could this also simply be a political version of Ali’s famous rope a dope strategy?
“a clear decision on Afghanistan strategy and an accompanying speech explaining what our goals are there”
Obama did this more than 6 months ago now…
rukidding:
“Could this also simply be a political version of Ali’s famous rope a dope strategy?”
Why are you asking this question?
This was the delivered verdict of the great minds here at The Moonbat Academy about two months ago.
Don’t you believe your own propaganda?
It’s a “rope a dope” strategy alright, and the Alleged Hawaiian has opened fire on the cash-rich health-insurance industry while at the same time opening fire on the nation’s most-watched cable news network.
And all while his foreign policy initiatives have shown ZERO successes.
You won’t read it here in the Sweat Lodge, but the Iranians apparently just reneged on the three-way deal to have their LEU shipped to Russia and their reactor fuel plates that they have CLAIMED their uranium stockpile was for all along to be supplied by France.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/6376902/Iran-pulls-back-from-deal-on-uranium-enrichment.html
In a nutshell, Obama sold out the Poles and the Central Euros by pulling out the missile defenses, and forsook the Iranian election demonstrators by keeping his mouth shut while the IRG machine-gunned them in the streets…and he got NOTHING in return except for a meaningless Nobel Prize.
Suckaz been PLAYED!
Can’t wait to see how his domestic version of rope-a-dope pans out.
Wow! I hadn’t come across a radical left blog for a while. It’s amazing. The socialist kool-aid is really flowing. Dems really do believe they are the only members of the voting public. Independents and Republicans still want to maintain the government our fore-fathers fought and died for, not let it become a socialist banana republic.
Love your left-wing comments and lack of touch with reality…gives hope that 2010 (and ..12) will see a move back toward a strong country and away from socialism.
Vet:
“Wow! I hadn’t come across a radical left blog for a while. It’s amazing.”
Yep, they’re really something, huh?
Bear in mind that this blog is the WaPo’s notion of “newsy”.
The gentleman is invited to draw his own conclusions…
Democrats and, especially Obama have already hurt themselves with the base. True, much of that will be regained if they pass a strong public option. But their apparent willingness to sell out – along with Bush-like positions on State secrets, rendition, and other issues – has damaged their credibility and much of the base will not be willing to trust them going forward.