Andy Stern: SEIU Might Back Specter In 2010 If He Supports Employee Free Choice
A second top labor union official is strongly suggesting that his union could back GOP Senator Arlen Specter for re-election in 2010 if he votes for the Employee Free Choice Act — a move that would offer Specter a major incentive to switch parties and become a Dem or an Independent.
As I reported below, a top AFL-CIO effectively confirmed yesterday that AFL would back Specter if he supported Employee Free Choice.
I’ve now gotten a similar response from SEIU chief Andy Stern, after asking Stern’s office if the SEIU would follow AFL’s lead.
“We have endorsed Senator Specter in the past and we have a long-established record of standing with Members of Congress who support workers,” Stern replied via email.
Though Stern said the members would ultimately make the endorsement decision, this is highly suggestive. The Employee Free Choice Act is far and way labor’s top priority, and Stern’s answer makes it clear that it’s extremely likely that SEIU would back Specter if the Senator supported the measure.
These machinations are a big deal. The prospect of labor support offers a big incentive for Specter to switch parties — and to support Employee Free Choice. Specter may be facing a serious GOP primary challenge from the right. Some analysts think Specter’s only shot at surviving is to pull out of the GOP first and becomes an Indy or a Dem. If he does, supporting Employee Free Choice could give him the organizational muscle from labor and Democratic backing he needs to win a general election and hold his seat.
Relatedly, in another big development, White House chief economic adviser Larry Summers offered a strong philosophical defense of Employee Free Choice, HuffPo’s Sam Stein reports, a further sign of the Obama administration’s commitment to getting this done.
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Update: An anti-Employee Free Choice operative emails to point out that Summers has written critically of unionization in the past.
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So, Greg, whaddya think? Is Specter gonna jump ship?
jzap — no clue. I’m surprised at how many analysts are saying that it’s his only hope.
Well played, SEIU! Dangle that delicious carrot!
I appreciate your honesty, Greg. It’s been a hallmark of TPM alumni
Well, it may be. But I think Specter has quite a while ’til he has to decide. Might as well wait and see how things unfold.
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If he has two wingnuts opposing him in the primary, they might split the pinhead vote and let him squeak through. But your numbers about GOOPer voters switching to Dem is very telling. It really does fit the meme of the GOP semi-literally Whigging out.
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My feeling is odds are about 60-40 for an eventual Specter (D-PA). But that guess comes directly from my you-know-what!
Could he go full Lieberman and run (and maybe even win) as an independent? Obviously there’s a lot of if’s there.
Keep in mind Pennsylvania’s voter registration shift during the 2008 pesidential election will not help Specter’s chances of winning the Republican primary.
In 2004, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 4 million to 3.4 million. In 2008, Democrats had a 4.3 million to 3.2 million advantage.
Obviously, a lot of those are new registrations. But it is safe to assume that a large number of centrist Republicans (i.e. Specter supporters) are now Democrats. Under Pennsylvania’s election rules they are not eligible to vote in the Republican primary.
In other words, as a group, Pennsylvania’s Republican voters are more conservative than they were 6 years ago when Pat Toomey lost to Specter in the primary by only 2 percent.
Toomey has not sat idle the past two years. He has led the Club for Growth, using its resources to back conservative Republicans in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, many of whom won. That means he will have a lot of favors to cash in.
I’m sure that if spector is looking at a lose he’ll do what ever he has to do. They all do.
You know that when historic liberals like George McGovern join conservatives and come out in opposition to this bill there is something basically wrong with it. Of course the dems would never label McGovern as bipartisan. In there eyes he is a traitor.
This is the payoff to the special interests in labor for helping to sell the Obama candidacy.
Hopefully there are still enough patriots in the congress to vote this down.
Oh, Northstar. George McGovern is historic in how he destroyed the Democratic coalition. He never got along with unions; most endorsed Muskie in the primary. Most working class people saw him as a stalking horse for counter-cultural interests.
So now he’s a bitter old cad, trying to punish labor for being turned off by him 40 years ago.