The Trigger Lives! Trigger Still Has More Votes Than Opt Out In Senate
It’s nice that Harry Reid is set to announce plans for a final bill with the public option plus an opt out clause. But this doesn’t mean the trigger is dead in the Senate. It is very much alive.
As I first reported here on Friday, Senate leadership aides have determined that the public option with the “trigger” is closer to having 60 votes than the opt-out plan is. Now Glenn Thrush reports the same, and puts some hard numbers on the vote count that I didn’t have:
Reid, who spoke with virtually every member of his 60-member caucus this weekend, currently has between 56 and 57 votes for a proposal to create a national insurance plan but allow states to opt out of it, according to Democratic aides.
A public option with a “trigger” — supported by the White House and Sen. Olympia Snowe — has between 58 and 59 backers. It could be floated as an alternative if the opt-out measure fails to obtain the 60 votes needed for cloture, sources said.
As Thrush notes, even if Reid is announcing the opt out today, victory for the public option is still a ways away. The opt out has less support in the Senate than the trigger — which the White House reportedly prefers and which many reformers regard as a betrayal of the public option — and that shows no signs of changing yet.
The trigger could yet live if the opt out fails. Sam Stein has more on how the mechanics of this would work.
Incidentally, by making a very public push for the opt out right now, Reid can avoid blame later if it ultimately falls short and if the Senate ultimately goes with the trigger. He can point out — rightly — that he threw his weight and prestige behind the opt-out first. Just sayin’.
Update: Okay, so maybe the trigger doesn’t live at all.
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Awesome, nothing’s changed again.
But that won’t wash. Reid will still be blamed for failing to get the blue dogs to vote for cloture. This will not sit well with progressives. I know it doesn’t sit well with this one! Reid has told progressives for years that we needed 60 votes. Now, if he can’t deliver, his stating that he tried won’t be enough to keep in or the Dems in power for long. At least not the current make up of them!
By the way, it’s typical of the politico to spin this as the opt out in danger of not being passed but, not say the same for this trigger. It appears to be a continuation of the “public option is dead”meme. It just means we have to keep the pressure on by letting them know that this latest rumor had better be just that!
roxsteady, I can confirm for you that Senate leadership does believe it has more votes for the trigger, as I reported on Friday.
Here’s a few answers to some of the questions here about the opt-out and how it might work, but then it also raises more questions.
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2009/10/26/the-when-how-who-and-what-of-the-public-option-opt-out/
I’m not saying that I doubt your sources Greg! I just mean that if they think that we’re going to accept that as an excuse for not putting in a strong public option without a trigger, we’re not going to see it as a victory.
Next post.
Single Payer Still on the Table Anonymous Congressional Aides Tell Us.
Wait, I think I’m starting to get what’s happening.
Are all the bloggers racing to get articles out first so then they can point back to their blog as being the one with the first scoop as soon as Reid comes out with his statement?
If that’s the case.
I call final vote 55 yea 45 nay on the final vote for health care.
You heard it here first folks.
They know where we liberals and progressives stand so, no matter how they try to spin what might very well be a watered down bill that acomplishes little, we won’t be cheering this as landmark legislation. We’ll simply set about the task of targeting progressive Dems to challenge the duplicitous blue dogs and get rid of them. We’re willing to start looking ahead almost immediately.
Greg,
A Bill does not need 60 votes to pass. You are conflating Cloture with Bill passage.
How many Democratic Senator will vote with Republicans to deny Cloture, on any form of the Bill? That is what you need to ask about.
There are at least 51 votes to pass any form of the bill. That is not the problem. Will any Democrats go with the Republican Filibuster is the key question. If they do, then Health Care is dead. If they do not, then a bill with a Robust Public Option can pass with 51 votes.
We need to maintain clarity, and separation, on what 60 votes are actually needed for.
edit:
Democratic Senators
Has anyone asked Evan Bayh about his vote? I know Mr.Hairplugs is a jealous t-u-r-d but one with ambitions for higher office. If he votes no on cloture he can kiss higher office goodbye.
Kris, I hear his wife doesn’t want to vote for cloture.
All of this is show. If the CBO scores the opt-out Senate bill around what the House bills came out as – under Pres. Obama’s total cost number, has good cost containment, and lowers the deficit – then 60 Dem. votes won’t be a problem.
Obama will say he’s happy this bill meets his principals, as does the House bill, and he looks forward to both chambers passing their respective bills and getting into committee to draft the FINAL legislation. That, and some backroom pressure, will get it over this hurdle.
After conference, when we have a final bill to vote on…Pres. Obama will finally have something he can sell the American people without alienating “the other chamber”. Just give him the ball.
What’s most amusing is that many of these blue dogs will see primary challenges whether they vote for cloture or not and whether they vote for the final bill. I can’t wait for election night when some of them including perhaps some surprises.
Will have to give consession speeches!
Yet again we are being force fed the “latest” twist. Do we really need all this drama? Our Bloggers are as bad a Halperin, Mike Allen and the others in breathless reporting. Let’s hear what Reid says. Let’s see what the WH says and posts. Let’s hold our line firm. The Senate can twist all they want but the trigger option will have problems with people like Feingold. The idea that Snowe is holding us hostage is offensive. We need to be united on the progressive side: no apologies. The Republicans have held firm; we should too. The WH can decide if they need our vote more than those who support Ben Nelson. Even MacAskill is squishy. I won’t trust the Dems until I see the vore count. Simple question: how many votes can Snowe deliver for the Democrats in 2010? My group can do it work if it has a reason to. So Obama had better show some leadership to those that went the extra ten miles for him at some personal cost and sacrifice.
alan, nobody is as bad as Halperin. That guy is a pompous ***.
You’ll be lucky if Greg doesn’t ban you and your entire class B address from this site for eternity!
“Trigger is not alive. I would never have him stuffed alive”. Roy Rogers.
BBQ
Ditto
I seriously doubt this positioning on this wasn’t thought out ahead of time. A way I’d look at this is how does this reflect on Obama? How does it reflect on Reid?
Imho, Reid looks stronger by opposing what the WH wants and Obama comes out looking like a centrist willing to bend the will of the majority of Democratic Senators to the needs of Olympia Snowe.
Then again, I’m all about conspiracies.
Harry On C-Span now.
http://cspan.org/Watch/Media/2009/10/26/HP/R/24727/Sen+Reid+DNV+Announces+Public+Option+Decision+at+Press+Briefing.aspx
Harry said that he is going forward with Opt-Out Option.
He is sending the bill Opt-Out bill to CBO for scoring.
States will have until 2014 to decide on Opt-Out Option.
Harry is not going to get CBO to score on Trigger Option.
Senator Snowe told Harry that she does not like any form of Public Option. Harry said that we are going to move forward with the Opt-Out Option in the bill.
Mike from Arlington: thank you: point taken. Greg is a very astute blogger – I first saw his work at TPM and was impressed. I think Greg is quality oriented. But I am balking at the hourly twists and turns of polls from here to eternity.
Given that US citizens travel like water across the various state borders, the whole idea of an “opt-out” is completely bogus, since anyone from an “opt-in” state may try to use healthcare in an “opt-out” state, making Harry Reid’s Senate bill a functional reenactment of the “Missouri Compromise“.