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Poll Finds Dropping Health Care Plan Doesn’t Help Dems. So Pass The Bill!

The latest poll from Public Policy Polling finds that Dems are in a tough spot heading into 2010 whether or not they pass health care reform.

While this may make some Dems even more skittish about passing reform, this finding, in a rational world, actually presents a pretty strong case for passing it. The poll finds that Republicans lead in the generic ballot matchup 43%-40%. It then factors in health reform:

When respondents were asked how they would vote for Congress if the Democrats did not pass their health care plan the GOP level of support remained at 43%, with Democrats dropping to 38%. That’s because only 76% of Democrats say they’ll vote for their party without health care. These numbers suggest the GOP will get the same level of support whether the bill passes or not.

Finally respondents were asked how they would vote if Democrats did pass their health care plan. In that instance the GOP leads 45-41, with more undecideds making up their minds.

So if Dems don’t pass the bill, GOP support holds at 43%, but Dem support drops, giving the GOP a five point lead. If they do pass it, the GOP ends up with a statistically identical four point lead. Eric Kleefeld opines that Dems are caught between a “rock and a hard place.”

That may be, but consider it this way. Let’s say the rock represents passing reform, and the hard place represents shelving it. If reform passes, Dems have a concrete accomplishment to go out and sell — and have a chance of changing voters’ minds about it. In other words, the rock, with enough sweat and toil, can perhaps be moved.

But the hard place — i.e., shelving reform — can’t be moved. If Dems shelve it, the plan will remain the same death panel-laden product of shady backroom dealing that currently exists in voters’ minds. And Republicans will see to it that voters are reminded that Dems tried to jam it down their throats — and remind voters that Dems are ineffectual, to boot. The hard place won’t budge, and Republicans will grind Dems’ faces into it.

Or here’s another way to put this that some Dems might have an easier time accepting: You may as well do what you believe is the right thing, since you’re screwed either way!

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Posted by Greg Sargent | 02/02/2010, 01:43 PM EST | Categories: 2010 elections, House Dems, House Republicans, health care, polling

55 Responses

  • Ethan you could go on all day because you are making these things up as you go along. Stop stealing you thieving commie, then we can all get along.

  • Obama admits DEMS SNUCK in health care provisions

    “The last thing I will say, though — let me say this about health care and the health care debate, because I think it also bears on a whole lot of other issues. If you look at the package that we’ve presented — and there’s some stray cats and dogs that got in there that we were eliminating, we were in the process of eliminating. For example, we said from the start that it was going to be important for us to be consistent in saying to people if you can have your — if you want to keep the health insurance you got, you can keep it, that you’re not going to have anybody getting in between you and your doctor in your decision making. And I think that some of the provisions that GOT SNUCK in might have VIOLATED that PLEDGE.

    dailycaller.com/2010/01/30/obama-admits-dems-snuck-in-health-care-provisions/

    translation-BUSTED!

  • There are really three ( 3 ) political results possible, not just two (2) :

    1. Health Care Bill fails and, in the voters minds, the critics are proven right by definition that it was a bad bill, or,

    2. Health Care Bill passes and voters start listening to Obama and change their minds and believe it is a good bill,or,

    3. Health Care Bill passes, more people read it, and the voters decide it is even worse than they feared.

  • Assuming the voters are able to read and are intelligent, not stupid, which is the most likely result ???

  • Only if the voters are illiterate, stupid and gullible, as Team Obama apparently believes, will passing the Health Care bill actually help Democrats.

    Based on the state wide Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts races, the Obama understanding of the voters would appear to be wrong.