Group Commissions Poll To Prove To Blue Dogs Public Option Is Popular Among Their Constituents
There’s apparently nothing that anyone can do to convince Blue Dog and conservative Dems that the public option is popular and not all that politically risky, but that isn’t stopping one major liberal group from giving it a big try.
Health Care for America Now, the major umbrella pro-reform group, has commissioned a big new poll of 91 conservative House swing districts — including many Blue Dog and rural ones — that finds the public option has solid majority support among those voters.
The poll and its accompanying memo — which is being circulated among House Dems and was sent over by a source — also send a strong warning to conservative Dems that if health care fails, the resulting damage to the President will rebound on them.
The poll, by respected Dem pollster John Anzalone, finds that 54% of these swing district voters support the public option, and makes the case that these voters emphatically don’t want a “trigger,” the compromise of choice in some quarters:
The public option shouldn’t be considered in isolation. Including a public option is essential to implementing an individual mandate. Voters also already prefer the implementation of a public option, and do not see a need for a trigger. There’s over-whelming opposition to an individual mandate when the only choices are private insur-ance, but there’s net support for a mandate when people have the choice of a public option. And swing district voters are convinced private sector healthcare has failed to make health care affordable, and prefer the public option now rather than waiting on a trigger option.
It also says that failure to get reform done will be courting disaster, and could rebound specifically on swing-district Dems as it did in 1994:
Swing District Dems will rise and fall with Obama. A failure on healthcare will likely hurt Obama’s approval ratings and in turn hurt Democrats in 2010, with swing district Democrats particularly susceptible given the competitiveness of their districts. Members need only revisit 1994 to gauge the electoral ramifications (52 lost seats) for the govern-ing party when the President pushes aggressively for healthcare reform but comes up short.
Now the trick will be to get conservative Dems to read this memo and perhaps even allow it to influence their thinking a bit.
This blog’s homepage is here. RSS feed here. Twitter feed here. Email me here.
“Swing District Dems will rise and fall with Obama.”
I think it’s fair to say that all the Democrats will rise and fall with Obama. And the Democrats will pay if this doesn’t get done. Now that the scenario is clearly framed: the GOP isn’t doing anything therefore it’s on the Democrats, well, it’s on the Democrats.
The poll, by respected Dem pollster John Anzalone, finds that 54% of these swing district voters support the public option….
Of course, that number is irrelevant. The only relevant numbers are those of the individual districts. The cumulative figure doesn’t tell the representatives anything regarding the likely outcome of voting for reform since they won’t be facing the cumulative voters, only the ones from their own districts.
oddjob, at a minimum, that number should get individual members to question their own assumptions about the supposed risk inherent in backing the public option
Greg – I agree with you. It’s something that they can waive around and say: See, a majority of Americans want this and you are running a risk if you ignore that.
waive should have been wave.
Hahahahah – what is it about commenting that causes this problem in people’s brains with homophones. I don’t know anyone who hasn’t had this problem – you think one thing and type another.
Greg – not complaining, just letting you know – comments are very slow to show up for me today. Yesterday for some reason it was a lot better.
at a minimum, that number should get individual members to question their own assumptions about the supposed risk inherent in backing the public option
And at a minimum, if I was one of those reps. of course I would notice, but then immediately my very next question would be, “Do you have the breakdown of the results in my own district?”
As I said before, those are the only results that matter.
@oddjob
I agree with you, absolutely, but for the overall polling of Blue Dog districts shows 54% support for the Public Option, that means that a real lot of them have it even stronger. Assuming the Blue Dogs in question actually know anything about their districts, and more importantly, care about them, they should know darn well if their district is in the share well above 50%, or below. District-by district results are better, but if these reps are worth anything at all, I think they can figure out which ones of them it means.
oddjob
If the Dogs really cared couldn’t they commission a poll of their own districts? They could just use the campaign money they’ve collected from the Pharma and Insurance industries to pay for it.
Greg
Here’s numbers from a NY Times/CBS poll. 65% of Americans support the Public Option, 26% oppose it. However, 55% think the president hasn’t explained it very well.
I’m afraid I would have to agree with oddjob as well. Unless the poll can be reliably broken down by district, most BDs will pay little attention to this.
Now, if they were smart (big IF there), they’d realize that a big proportion of their district voters really don’t give a poop about this and will end up selling their vote to the highest bidder on whatever other issues capture the public attention over the next year.
Mr. Sargent:
“oddjob, at a minimum, that number should get individual members to question their own assumptions about the supposed risk inherent in backing the public option”
Really? What would it take to get you to question your own assumptions?
Shall we not talk about Yosi Sergant of the NEA, ACORN, Van Jones?
How about the hypocrisy of Democratic Massachussets pols and their “Selection 09″ of Kennedy’s replacement…after your sainted Teddy had specifically advocated to make a Senate vacancy subject to a special election?
The seams in the hull of Liberalism have sprung and are taking on water so quickly that you’d best start thinking about constructing a liferaft.
I think that at this point the Blue Dogs are thinking about a lot more than just the public option or even healthcare reform. Just as this memo urges the Dogs to not look at the public option in isolation, I believe the Blue Dogs are not looking at healthcare reform in isolation. The problem for them is being associated with Obama’s agenda at all. Many folks personally “like” Obama but think that his policies are too liberal. The WSJ points out some interesting aspects of the Governor’s race in Virginia:
“Robert F. McDonnell, made a big bet early on that the very Virginia voters who last year helped Mr. Obama win the state today have grave doubts about his agenda, and are wary of making the same mistake… Mr. McDonnell details his ties to the national unions, which want to strip Virginia workers of rights with card check. …Mr. McDonnell has…forced him instead to defend what his party’s cap-and-trade legislation would do to Virginia’s economy, defend what Washington’s health-care agenda would do to Virginia senior citizens, or defend the February stimulus that has not created jobs.
“Mr. Deeds doesn’t defend.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574431080139159704.html?mod=rss_opinion_main
If the Dogs really cared couldn’t they commission a poll of their own districts?
Certainly, but to do it reliably means the poll will be quite expensive. The smaller the group being polled the larger the sample size needed to produce a reliable result. The larger the size needed the more difficult it is to get and that’s why conducting a poll district by district is so expensive.
The Blue Dogs are being lobbied here. I’m sure from their perspective the ones who ought to conduct that poll are the lobbyists.
Here is what I think is another major takeaway from the poll.
.
.
This tells me that many liberal and progressive groups that have targeted Blue Dogs with ads tying them to Health insurance lobby money are on the right track. It shows a pressure point to get some of these Blue Dogs on board if you ask me.
# Bilgeman | September 12th, 2009 at 11:52 am
End the illegal occupation of Confederate Land and begone from us. We are not of the same nation, and judging from the slurs posted and allowed here yesterday, nor should we be. They would then be free to sneer their contempt at us to their heart’s content from within the borders of whatever lands that remain to them.
………………………..
That makes you a foreigner, and you have often said that foreigners should mind their own business, and not have any say in what happens in the USA.
Since you see yourself as a Confederate, and since the Confederate States’ Secession from The United States Of America, was done because your Confederacy wanted to continue to own Black People, as Slaves, that was the ultimate in Racist Behavior.
Since you have now revealed that you consider yourself a citizen of the Confederacy, that makes you both a non-American(A Foreigner) and an unrepentant racist.
I agree sg. Within the democratic constituency there is great concern that the industry is helping to shape the legislation. The Blue Dogs in particular should be sensitive to this concern, hence some have begun to back away from their opposition to the public option.
It is my belief that while conservatives and their new inclusion of libertarians rail against government and try to hide their continued corporate interests in this anti-government platform, as liberals we should be calling out the greed of corporate America and their influence in politics and submission of the middle class. If a few Blue Dogs get caught in the crossfire, so be it.
@Lmsinca: Related to your post, have you seen this article about Dem fundraising?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/24/AR2009092404906.html?wprss=rss_politics
“The vast majority of those declines were accounted for by the absence of large donors who, strategists say, have shut their checkbooks in part because Democrats have heightened their attacks on the conduct of major financial firms.”
“have shut their checkbooks in part because Democrats have heightened their attacks on the conduct of major financial firms.””
The way to counter that is for us – the grassroots – to support the Democrats financially because if we don’t, somebody has to and it’s going to be industries with big money and big stakes.
I said it before, and I’ll say it again: If HCR fails, the Blue Dog colalition is going to be the hardest hit come 2010. It’s obvious, patently obvious, and now backed up by a pile of polls.
The question they need to ask themselves is, what’s more important: The lobbiest money you’ve already gotten, and the dip in funds you might see if you side with the voters; or losing your seat and getting ZERO lobbying dollars because you don’t get a vote anymore.
It’s a pretty easy choice.
“It’s a pretty easy choice.”
Isn’t the choice really, “Is this the right healthcare reform for my constituents?”
Does anyone think that any of the Blue Dogs might be against the current bills for good reasons having nothing to do with insurance money?
sbj
I already read that and realize along with strategists the pitfalls of such a strategy. Does that mean we should cave to the lobbyists representing these financial interests? I think you will see a change in contributions and attitudes when the health care bill passes, especially if it is a good one that the monopolistic insurance industry doesn’t like.
I work in local politics and know we can raise enough money from constituents to replace one corrupt Republican congressman from my district. Organizing for America and other more liberal organizations are in full swing organizing grassroots communities for future elections. Hopefully, the contributions will rise along with that effort.
It’s time to break the stranglehold corporations and greed based economics have on our country.
Maybe we should commission a poll to see how many people would like to see the Blue Dogs testicles removed using a dull butter knife.
How credible will that poll be? No one has their fingers on the pulse of American opinion like the union front group Health Care for America Now. Sorry, I meant no one has their finger on the scale.
Seriously, quit trying to put the government in charge of healthcare and quit trying to steal from taxpayers. Start over with a new plan that isn’t tainted by Obama’s myriad lies and that isn’t covered by union goon fingerprints.
@lmsinca: I don’t agree or disagree with the points you make. I was merely bringing an article related to your point to your attention coz I thought you might be interested. I think we agree that the Democratic Party needs to stop taking corporate money if they are going to continue to paint them as evil. I’m with you and would have more respect for the party if they would put their money where their mouth is, so to speak. (I’m not convinced, personally, that corporate money is such an evil but I do believe there is too much money in politics.)
Seriously, quit trying to put the government in charge of healthcare and quit trying to steal from taxpayers.
Deal with it. You’ve lost this one. Whether now or later in your life, you’ve lost this one.
Your comments would also probably be more useful if you didn’t bray so loudly in thirty year old cant.
@sbj
Study after study has shown that most of the core HCR principles being discussed (including the public option) would help Blue Dog district voters in very disproportionate way – in their favor.
So your question is already answered. Passing a strong public option will be the best thing for them. That’s not a question, because it’s been answered definitivaly.
So the question falls to the one that I presented earlier.
@bbq: I’m not trying to be flip, but I disagree. You flatly state that, “Passing a strong public option will be the best thing for them.” Contrary to what you contend, that has by no means been proven.
The problem with expecting the Blue Dogs to actually think about what the polls mean and to maybe do a poll in their own district is that the rightwing does not live in a reality based world. They live by faith, not by knowledge. I see no reason to exclude the BD’s because their statements in defense of their position show that they really don’t grasp reality, but think in bumper sticker slogans.
oddjob misstates the mechanics of doing a survey. Doing a survey of a small group does NOT require a bigger sample size. The sample size is approximately the same, a little smaller, but since the population is smaller, the percent of the population is greater, not the sample size itself. So doing the survey wouldn’t be as expensive as the original over a larger area since slightly fewer people in a restricted area are interviewed. Of course when you add up the costs of all the individual surveys in each district, it is much more, any given BD isn’t going to care about the results in another district.
“Yosi Sergant of the NEA, ACORN, Van Jones?
after your sainted Teddy had specifically advocated to make a Senate vacancy subject to a special election?”
You aren’t making much sense there, bilgewater. Sen. Kennedy’s seat will be occupied by the winner of the special election that is due to be held in about four months. And why exactly do you think Yosi, ACORN and Van Jones are a problem other than the Republican spin machine can’t find real problems to complain about?
“Does anyone think that any of the Blue Dogs might be against the current bills for good reasons having nothing to do with insurance money?”
If they had good reasons for being against the insurance company’s self-interest, don’t you think they would have given them? So far they haven’t said anything that passes the smell test. They keep talking about cost, but refuse to acknowledge that it would be cheaper than going the way we are, that it is being paid for, and that the cost of NOT doing the public option is a lot more than doing it. Eventually they will have to find other talking points, but doubtless they will be given them when the ones they use now are painfully obviously false.