Internal House Whip Count Numbers Show Strong Support For Public Option
I’ve just been sent some new numbers from the internal whip count House Dems are doing on the public option, and they show that support for it is still running strong, though the numbers suggest the strongest version of it may prove out of reach.
Specifically: House progressive leaders have been counting up how many members — beyond just progressives — will support the strongest version of the public option, i.e., the one tied to Medicare rates plus five percent.
The number so far, a source familiar with the count tells me: 170 firm supporters. That’s way beyond the 83 members of the House who make up the Congressional Progressive caucus.
What’s that mean for the public option? Well, the bill needs 218 votes to pass. That means it needs another 48 Dems to get on board, out of another 61 Dems who are presumed gettable — 23 Dems who are undecided, and another 38 who have not yet been asked their position, or “whipped.”
Absent having a list of names, it’s hard to tell who’s stilll up for grabs, and getting 48 more could be tough, because leaders may have counted the most liberal members first. “There aren’t enough moderate Democrats in the House that will vote for a public option tied to Medicare rates,” one aide to a moderate Dem told me.
Maybe, but it’s still going to be close. And at the very least, the strong support demonstrated by the numbers will keep the pressure on the House leadership to keep the public option — in a less robust form, perhaps — in the bill.
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The President’s approval ratings got a bump when it got out he’d said Kanye West was a jackаss.
He owes Jackasses an apology.
Some data to add, the Progressive caucus has lost 14 votes for the robust public option:
“On July 31, 60 Democrats in the House signed a letter saying they would vote against any health care bill that does not have a robust public option. They wrote in protest over Blue Dog efforts, led by Mike Ross, to hold the House bill “hostage” and gut it. Now, according to an interview with Raul Grijalva in The Hill, that number is down to 46.”
http://campaignsilo.firedoglake.com/2009/10/02/progressive-block-loses-14-members-join-dfa-and-fdl-and-tell-them-we-stand-united/
Also notable – per The Hill:
“Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is shifting to the center on a government-run public health insurance plan, warming to a version that is being supported by some Blue Dog Democrats.
Pelosi’s recent public statements and private conversations indicate her willingness to move away from the more liberal proposal, which she had been promoting as being more cost-effective. The centrist view was negotiated with Blue Dogs to move the bill out of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.”
sbj, I think you’re onto something. Democrats are turning against each other. This must be what the beginning of the end looks like.
Greg, I am about to send you a tip/info on Demintt and Honduras in case you want to follow up. It may be too in the weeds, or out of your beat but I thought I would pass it on.
@Greg: Question.
Do these numbers suggest that even if Congress went the way of reconciliation that they STILL would not be able to pass a robust public option?
Mike,
SBJ, is longing for the return to power of the Republicans, with Their Hillbilly Ayatollahs, so that at long last he and his partner will be emancipated. You know how much those Hillbilly Ayatollahs long to emancipate G@ys like SBJ, and his partner.
@mike: Actually, I think this simply means the robust PO is dead and we are going to see a bipartisan reform bill with a weak “PO” at best. In other words, the Dems will settle for the reform that progressives said they would NEVER accept and that would NOT work to lower insurance costs.
Thanks for your update sbj
I think I’ll just wait and see what actually happens. The roller coaster ride of health care reform is now a bungee drop. Wheeeee!!!
sbj, I’m not sure how these numbers relate to reconciliation…that concerns the Senate. And keep in mind that we’re talking about the most robust version of the PO here. there are other versions
@Greg: Supposing the Senate could pass a robust PO bill via reconciliation, wouldn’t that bill still need to be combined with a House bill? And doesn’t this whip count suggest that a robust PO bill cannot pass?
I understand there are other “public option” options, so to speak, but it has been generally agreed that anything less than a PO tied to Medicare rates would be a major disappointment to progressives. In fact, that caucus appears to be getting steamrolled.
By my reckoning, the House can’t pass a robust PO bill. OTOH, the progressive caucus is still strong enough to prevent passage of a weak alternative “PO” bill. Interesting.
An earlier Plum Line post regarding the public option that is not tied to Medicare:
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/health-care/house-liberals-to-pelosi-stick-with-us-and-ditch-the-blue-dogs/
@ sbj, if the senate did pass PO through reconciliation it would indeed need to be combined with a house bill. That, however, has nothing to do with the data Greg lists.
I don’t know anyone that generally agrees with you, so you second point is up in the air.
If the House can’t pass a robust PO bill then maybe Obama can add it in a signing statement?????
sbj, Shill C. still waiting for your answers to my question:
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/bipartisanship/poll-majority-supports-bill-with-public-option-even-if-it-has-no-gop-support/#comment-85326
inaccurate re losing 60. they stopped the count to do the overall whip count.
Here, shills, while you’re thinking of a response, a sampling of the patriotic Right’s reax to Chicago (last I checked part of AMERICA) not getting the Olympics:
http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/weekly-standard-newsroom-erupts-into-cheers-at-news-of-olympics.php
John McCormack in a post titled “Chicago Loses! Chicago Loses!”
“Chicago and Tokyo eliminated. No Obamalypics,” Michelle Malkin tweeted, following up with, “Game over on Obamalympics. Next up, Obamacare.”
“Please, please let me break this news to you. It’s so sweet,” said Glenn Beck
“Hahahahaha,” wrote Red State’s Erick Erickson
The Drudge Report announced the news like so: “WORLD REJECTS OBAMA: CHICAGO OUT IN FIRST ROUND. THE EGO HAS LANDED.”
“The worst day of Obama’s presidency, folks. The ego has landed. The world has rejected Obama,” echoed Rush Limbaugh.
“ChicagPWn3D!” tweeted Newsmax
Maybe you can work into your answer to my previous question your thoughts on how these quotes are going to look in tomorrows news.
Whip it GOOD!
Re Boehner and the PO, not having met a single American who supports it. Sign the petition.
http://www.dccc.org/page/invite/BoehnerTY
@ethan. You expect a “terrorist” to freely answer your questions? You’ll have to waterboard me!
mmm mmm mmm
Ethan
Did you see the poll where 84% of Americans hoped Chicago got the 2016 Olympics. The conservative media and elite are on the wrong side of public opinion again. What a freak show.
Bill Frist says he would vote to pass the Health Care Reform Bill.
http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/10/02/bill-frist-on-health-bill-id-vote-for-it/
Excerpt:
” Were he still in the Senate, “I would end up voting for it,” he said. “As leader, I would take heat for it. … That’s what leadership is all about.”
This is not to say that Frist is entirely happy with everything that is in the bill.
For one thing, he doesn’t think it does nearly enough to bring costs under control. In his view, it does not fundamentally change the incentives that providers now have to provide more care, rather than better care. “There is really nothing to bend the cost curve,” he says.”
“Yes We Créu”
One more interesting little quote re Olympics from TPM
Apparently no one read the tweet from former Bush flack Scott Stanzel.
“Note to GOP officials/consultants – resist the temptation to pile on about Chicago losing the Olympic bid just because Obama made the pitch,” he wrote, advice reportedly passed on by Former Mitt Romney spokesman Kevin Madden.”
Long time Military Correspondent, Joseph Galloway, has pretty much the same opinion on what President Obama should do next with Afghanistan. Mr. Galloway has covered all our wars, from Vietnam to the present day.
…………………………
Commentary: Now’s the time for Obama to just say ‘no’
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/v-print/story/76481.html
Excerpt: Use link to read his entire commentary.
“There are times when less is more and more is the wrong answer, and right now in Afghanistan would seem to be one of those times.
There are a lot of theories and proposals flying around as President Barack Obama and his national security advisers debate what our military and civilian arms of the government can do with the eight-year old war in Afghanistan.
Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commander on the ground, wants another 40,000 to 45,000 American troops thrown into the fight to reinforce the 68,000 in country by late November.
Without those reinforcements — even though no one knows where we would get them in a military already stretched paper-thin and with troops as badly worn and tired by war as their equipment — the general says our long and costly effort in that distant tribal land cannot possibly succeed.
Interestingly, McChrystal offers no prediction of success or anything remotely resembling success if he does get the additional troops which would, in any event, not get to the battlefield until late next year.
Sure as death and taxes, though, I would expect the general to be back early next spring calling urgently for yet another 50,000 American troops to be thrown into the battle. If granted that would bring our troop strength to nearly 160,000 — more than the late Soviet Union threw into their lost war in Afghanistan.”
If not getting the Olympics in 2016 is the worst day of Obama’s presidency, we will all be very lucky indeed. Republicans, as usual, show no class. They also show they have no patriotism for anything outside their “real America” which they see as rural and white.
“What do you have against people of color in a developing nation on a continent that has never hosted the Olympics?”
- MM
I said all along that Rio was still the favorite, regardless of Mayor Daley persuading President Obama to go make a last minute pitch.
………………………..
Here is what I said last week.
# Liam | September 30th, 2009 at 04:33 pm
For heavens sake! It is President Obama’s home town we are talking about.
Which one of us would not do the same thing, if we had any prestige to use, and it was our own home town that was trying to win the Olympics bid.
The man loves Chicago, and he loves the White Sox. What the hell is this country coming to, if he can not make a brief trip, to try and boost the chances of his beloved Chicago getting the Olympic games in 2016.
I think that Rio is still most likely to win, since South America has never hosted the games.
Good luck to President Obama and Chicago. Be honest; we would all do the same thing, for our home town, if we were in his place.
sbj
I don’t think anyone here objects to Rio getting the Olympics. We’re wondering why Repubs are trying to blame everything on Obama as usual. He tried, we didn’t get it, good for South America. End of story unless you’re the Drudge Report, Rush, Malkin, Beck, Redstate, Newsmax or even Newt.
Hahaha. G-O-Politico has a splash of an image of Axelrod, Obama and Emmanuel under the headline “The agony of Obama’s defeat.” Absolutely hilarious.
Four cities competed. Only one could get the Olympics. President Obama did not organize, or run the bid campaign, so how the hell is that a defeat for him, but not a defeat for the Spanish Royal Family, or the Royal Family of Japan.
The Right Wingers have lost their minds. They are the ones who used to claim that the left thought that President Obama could walk on water, but now it is the Right Wingers who are acting like they are shocked that he did not walk on water.
What a bunch of irrational Maroons. Shows you how desperate they must be, to engage in such public paroxysms of schadenfraude, because their own country did not get to host the 2016 Olympics.
Why do the Right Wing Republicans Hate America!
@lmsinca: Newt’s tweets:
@newtgingrich Somehow charm and oratory dont seem to work in foreign affirs but historians have warned that foreign policy is different than campaigning
@newtgingrich President Eisenhower had a rule that Presidents of the United States went to the meetings after success had been assured
I’m not so sure that they are so much ‘blaming’ Obama for the loss as they are celebrating a PR disaster. And that’s partisan politics, isn’t it? Nothing unseemly about that (insert shoe thrower praise here).
A Corner reader observes:
“Tens of millions of largely apolitical Americans are very emotionally invested in, sports. This is the lead story on ESPN right now. Lots of people who to this day have never heard of ACORN or Tim Geithner or TARP are being exposed to a major Obama failure.”
Again, Why do Right Wingers like SBJ Hate America.
Four cities competed. Only one could get the Olympics. President Obama did not organize, or run the bid campaign, so how the hell is that a defeat for him, but not a defeat for the Spanish Royal Family, or the Royal Family of Japan.
The Right Wingers have lost their minds. They are the ones who used to claim that the left thought that President Obama could walk on water, but now it is the Right Wingers who are acting like they are shocked that he did not walk on water.
What a bunch of irrational Maroons. Shows you how desperate they must be, to engage in such public paroxysms of schadenfraude, because their own country did not get to host the 2016 Olympics.
Why do the Right Wing Republicans Hate America!
Look at it this way: If Chicago had won, the dinosaur media and all the blogoshere left would have made it all about Obama. It would have been potrayed as his personal triumph, achieved through his wondrous charm and powers of persuasion, and an emblem of his masterful touch in foreign relations. Behold the man whose bidding the nations do! Wouldn’t it?
I doubt many conservatives are glad Chicago didn’t win, but Obama put some of his presige and political capital on the line here, for something that should have been far down his priority list. And he lost. Look, conservatives generally want Obama’s agenda to fail to be enacted. That’s no secret. I think they generally also feel that an embarassment like this probably costs him some domestic political capital and saps his ability to enact his agenda.
Eugene Robinson, with whom I rarely agree, had a very perceptive piece on it, as did Tucker Carlson (whom I also thing seldom contributes much of use). They point out that Obama way overplayed his hand, demonstrated some poor judgment and a tin ear, and should easily have seen this coming.
Obama looks a little less like the messianic, world-historical figure he has been potrayed, so he might not be able to spend another few trillion and bankrupt the future. That’s all it is about. Maybe a little schadenfreude, but then liberals have no aversion to that, do they?
Oh, jeebus. The wingers really don’t have much going for them when the Olympic host city race is all they have to talk about.
qb-
“Cost him some domestic capital”. In yours and Beck’s dreams.
>>>Obama looks a little less like the messianic, world-historical figure he has been potrayed, so he might not be able to spend another few trillion and bankrupt the future<<<
Hahahahahaha. God you are a fraking idiot.
Right Wing Republicans are celebrating that America did not get the 2016 Olympics.
Why Do Right Wing Republicans Hate America!
Yeah. This ranks up there with FDR’s Court packing scheme.
Quarterdeck is celebrating that America did not get to host the 2016 Olympics.
Why does Quarterdeck hate America. He must not be a real American, and he must love to Pal Around with Those Who Hate America.
SBJ is celebrating that America did not get to host the 2016 Olympics.
Why does SBJ hate America. He must not be a real American, and he must love to Pal Around with Those Who Hate America.
The unchanging reality that the Republicans and the Blue Dogs have to face is that a public option has consistently been shown to be overwhelmingly popular across the country. If worded solely as a matter of consumer choice – and not as a ridiculous “socialist takeover of healthcare” – a public option gets majority support in every state and district in which I have seen polling data.
Any politician who bucks that kind of public sentiment is seriously putting their own political future in peril. At some point, self interested Rs and Blue Dogs will have to consider their own vulnerability back home and vote in a way that they think will preserve their cushy gigs. There will undoubtedly be Repubs who will break rank with their party if they think that it is in their best interests to do so. Their devotion to any bedrock convictions regarding healthcare run about an inch deep.
I’m curious in the event that the Cold temperature through the north half of the world is described as due to the reduced sunspot process, and if a major sustained level of lowered sunspot process could change the estimate of global warming.
I wonder perhaps most of the Cold temperature through the northern half of the globe happens to be due to the lesser sunspot event, if any continuous degree of fallen sunspot process may likely have a bearing on this estimate of global warming.