Dem Talking Points: Our Loss Among Indys Was Fueled By Shrinking GOP
A source forwards the private talking points being circulated by the DNC on yesterday’s Dem losses, and they push back hard on all the punditry that Dem losses among independents are a grave problem, suggesting Dems know they need to kill that meme quick.
Specifically: The talking points concede that independents have grown more conservative, but argue that this is a function of the shrinking Republican Party, with voters who once self-identified as Republicans joining indy ranks and skewing them right. The key bit:
In the 2008 election, President Obama won Independents 52-44.
The consistence of President Obama numbers are striking, given that since the beginning of the year, the number of self-identified Republicans has been shrinking while the number of Independents has risen. What that means is that Independents have grown more conservative with disaffected Republicans joining their ranks.
While the President’s political standing has remained steady over the past year, the Republican brand has collapsed.
According to the Pollster.com National Party ID tracker, Republican Party ID has fallen from 26% in June to 21% today, while Independents have moved from 34% to 38%. Democrats have stayed steady, moving from 35% to 34%.
The point — which is often lost — is that independents are not an ideologically static group of voters permanently affixed to the center of the spectrum. The exodus of GOP voters has swelled their ranks and caused them to shift a bit to the right as an overall group — hence the larger share of indys won by Republicans yesterday. So runs the argument, anyway.
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Update: A Republican emails an extensive rebuttal. Dig in.
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Comments re Greg’s very yummy Morning Plum this morning . . .
I’ll bet you can guess my answer from my emphases.
Any little tornadoes spawned last night from the ever-present spin-war hurricane will precess into insignificance in a timely enough fashion.
That war has been fully exposed for a while. Last night’s results will weaken the deniers’ credibility.
The GOP will be defined mostly by its own behavior and by a big chunk of the MSM. A civil war among GOOPers will become assumed context in all discussions of the GOP’s prognosis.
Deeds announced he’d have Virginia opt-out of the health-care public option. Stooopid.
Corzine has a Goldman Sachs pedigree. A lot of people might be feeling resentful towards bailout babes, especially when they and/or their family, friends have lost jobs or are worried about them.
He’d like them to think so. In reality, it’s the Doggie Dems who are in the most jeopardy from an electoral backlash over a do-nothing Congress.
Yes, some will end up being prisoners of their fears; others won’t. (It almost seemed appropriate to mis-correct that typo as in[f]ernal.)
At least as big a win as was had by the Crack Suicide Squad in Monty Python’s Life of Brian.
You mean Reagan’s encouragement to Republicans to never say anything nasty about other Republicans?
Coming in second is not a victory of any kind (unless there’s a run-off to follow).
In helping elect a Dem, the GOP Imperial Wingnuttery demonstrated their willingness to use hara-kiri tactics (or more contemporaneously, suicide-bomber tactics) to get what they want. The phrase Political Terrorism seems demonstrably descriptive.
Yep. Inquiring minds wanna know: Does the GOP advocate negotiating with terrorists?
Yes (but slowly) and yes (kinda).
That emphasis is mine: Characterizing the GOP’s Palin wing as rising seems editorially questionable, especially after last night in NY-23. And remember, both successful GOP GOOBs asked Palin to please, please stay away from my home state, and, if possible, not even mention me by name. If the Palin wing was rising before last night, today its trajectory seems much more downward.
jzap, you’re in overdrive. Palin wing is rising in the sense that they successfully knocked off a GOP moderate!
I would have to agree that independents are not a static group of voters. I consider myself an independent. I have voted for GOP candidates and Dem candidates. I do not have membership in either party. I live in state where I can vote in either party.
So, the Republicans lost in NY-23 by veering toward the right, while Democrats lost in VA by moving toward the center.
The lesson is clear. Deliver on a progressive agenda or be sent home.
I suggest you keep questioning the patriotism of anyone who questions Barack Hussein Obama (mmm-mmm-mmm be upon him). We all know the only true patriots are those who unquestioningly pay their taxes.
If you take a look at THIS POLLSTER CHART, it’s pretty apparent Indies have increased by people that once considered themselves Republicans, now consider themselves Independents. So yeah, the independent would lean more conservative now.
It’s a sound statement supported by facts.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091104/ap_on_re_as/as_afghan_british_troops
“KABUL – An Afghan policeman opened fire on British soldiers in the volatile southern province of Helmand, killing five before fleeing, authorities said Wednesday, raising concerns about discipline within the Afghan forces and possible infiltration by insurgents.
The attack Tuesday afternoon came a month after an Afghan policeman on patrol with U.S. soldiers fired on the Americans, killing two. Training and operating jointly with Afghan police and soldiers is key to NATO’s strategy of dealing with the spreading Taliban-led insurgency and, ultimately, allowing international forces to leave Afghanistan.
Attacks such as these will heighten concern about the effectiveness of the Afghan forces.”
Baby Hugo is a Taliban sympathizer, ignore him.
Anyways, both NJ and VA swung from Republican strongholds to Democratic ones in 2001 when Bush stood at 90% approval ratings.
Were they a referendum on Bush too or just a reflection of the candidates running?
Just as in 2001, VA and NJ mean squat regarding the administration.
have increased by people that once considered themselves Republicans.
File under too obvious to notice. Leave it to our talking heads to utterly miss a simple point. There once were such a thing as sane Republicans. They can’t have all disappeared so they have to have gone somewhere!
@mike from Arlington (3:15): Sorry, but anything that doesn’t fit the media’s current meme about last night’s gubernatorial elections being “disastrous” or a “warning” or some other ominous and/or negative harbinger, must be ignored. Or, at least that’s what most of the media seems to think.
They’ve created their own story line, and disregarded any evidence to the contrary, such as empirical polling data and the Democrats’ ability to actually pick up more House seats in an “unfavorable” political climate.
Pundits don’t do facts.
… and elected the district’s first Democrat since the Civil War. Wow! Their star really is rising! (Feh.)
It’s like a rising star hockey player (let’s say she plays Right Wing) boasting that she can score a goal whenever she wants.
It’s true. She can put the puck in her own net whenever she wants. . . . at least until enough of her coaches get together to get and keep her off the ice!
Seriously, even if you could have legitimately characterized the Palin wing of the GOP as rising — at least up ’til yesterday — then today said rise is at best (for the wing) reduced and at worst reversed.
This may not be a big story but it seems like very bad timing.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=C0B157B4-18FE-70B2-A82F23EEC1800F45
It is not “The Palin Wing” Greg.
Which came first; The Wing Or The Palin?
Answer: It was The Wing. It was hatched and raise by “T*urd Blossom. Quitter Palin is just trying to attach herself to it. She had no hand in creating it, or in Shrub’s election results.
jzap, cmon, pushing out the moderate is a victory for Palin wing’s purposes, no matter what the outcome of the race. It makes it more of a force to be reckoned with within the GOP.
Shorter Dem talking point:
People left the GOP to be independents but vote more GOP as independents than they did as Republicans.
Quite funny.
I guess now Fox News is Pravda:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/04/david-axelrod-gives-inter_n_345772.html
The rebuttal in the update was nonsensical. Corzine was below 40% before the election started. That didn’t have anything to do with Obama. Deeds ran away from Obama (and his previous positions in many cases) on healthcare, the stimulus, environmental protection, women’s rights, etc. to look more “moderate” and go for swing voters. When given a choice between a democrat who takes republican positions and the real republican, people choose the republican every time.
Haha, thanks Andy. LOVE this:
A conservative Republican House member, speaking on the condition of anonymity, suggested that Bachman’s views – and her willingness to state them – make it hard for her to keep staff.
“When your captain’s crazy, it’s time to find a new ship,” the lawmaker said.
Regrettably, though I continue to love them of course, my two older siblings have morphed inexplicably into right-wing teabagging (political) azzwholes.
And yet each of them is now a registered “independent.”
This has occurred on a massive scale since the Bush meltdown.
Case closed.
Andy
That was an interesting Politico piece. It’s weird because they’re talking about all the interest in tomorrow’s house call and I read this morning it seemed to be a dwindling effort. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow how many folks show up.
What’s funny, as a registered Independent my husband and I finally decided to re-register as Dems this year. I don’t want to be associated with such a conservative Independent Party.
Gotta love Dan Rather:
“So much of what passed for political coverage last night was like watching a manure spreader in a windstorm,” Rather told POLITICO. “Much of it was just a constant stream of highly partisan political message points. Thoughtful analysis was as rare as a golden-fronted bowerbird.”
Ethan…nice!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091104/ap_on_re_as/as_myanmar_us
“YANGON, Myanmar – The highest-ranking American diplomat to visit Myanmar in 14 years offered improved relations Wednesday if its military regime moves toward democracy, putting into action the Obama administration’s new policy of engagement with the isolated country.
Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell spoke after both talks with the ruling generals and a rare meeting with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who has been under house arrest for most of the last two decades.
Campbell called on the military — which has ruled the impoverished country since 1962 — to open a dialogue with the opposition and ethnic minority groups, which are seeking a measure of autonomy. He also urged the military government to allow Suu Kyi more freedom to meet with people concerned with the political process, particularly her own party’s senior executives.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091104/pl_nm/us_usa_economy_congress_4
” The U.S. Senate was poised on Wednesday to extend aid for jobless workers and broaden tax breaks for homebuyers and businesses in a bill aimed at breathing life into the U.S. economy.
After weeks of partisan bickering, the Senate voted 97 to 1 to clear a procedural hurdle and move to final passage on Wednesday or Thursday. The House of Representatives is expected to approve it quickly and send it to President Barack Obama to sign into law.”
Seems like this vote on the House HCR bill has been a moving target. I thought it was going to be tomorrow (hence Bachmann calling for a house invasion). I also heard next week and now it seems it might be Saturday night.
Greg any insight on this?
http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/house-health-care-vote-likely-at-6-pm-saturday.php?ref=fpa
OK, I’m trying to look at it your way.
Didn’t one of the RxxC campaign committees vow as a result of NY-23 to not endorse primary candidates anymore? I guess that counts as a victory for the True Believers. (BTW, do the RxxCers think they can maybe cut a deal with the wingnutters on Crist vs Rubio in Florida? N2HFL!)
My problem is that although I can see your point in the abstract, I’m having trouble imagining who among the Palinista Tea-Paw Armey now has increased influence and with whom.
Here’s an interesting read on Cornyn and Steele talking about backing off of primaries. This really opens the door for those Conservatives.
“The move by Cornyn and Steele, in effect, may make it more likely for conservatives to take on moderate or “establishment” Republicans.
Democrats, for one, were downright gleeful with the news. A strategist working on the upcoming congressional races said the remarks amounted to a “neutering” of every moderate Republican who is making a run at office.
“What Cornyn is doing is basically abandoning the [California Republican] Carly Fiorinas, the [Connecticut Republican] Rob Simmons, the [Illinois Republican] Mark Kirks and [Florida Republican] Charlie Crist’s of the world,” said the strategist. “He’s giving a green light to all the fringe, tea-party people out there that, if they choose to run, they won’t have to go against the party apparatus. The party apparatus isn’t going to spend a dime. They aren’t going to have Mark Kirk’s back. If you’re that guy in Illinois and you’re worried about the cost of taking on Kirk, well, now that’s not a problem.”
Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/04/cornyns-primary-strategy_n_345648.html
Tea Bag it up! Politico:
A reader points out a pair of votes yesterday that dent the interpretation of yesterday’s results as a taxpayer revolt or conservative resurgence: “Taxpayer Bill of Rights” — or TABOR — proposals failed badly yesterday in both Washington State and Maine.
The Maine referendum and Washington initiative would have gone to the core of conservative governing philosophy, capping the growth in state revenues at inflation-plus-population growth, and essentially ending the growth of government.
Some 55% of Washington voters opposed the plan, as did 60% of Mainers, who voted it down for a third time.
“After weeks of partisan bickering, the Senate voted 97 to 1 to clear a procedural hurdle and move to final passage on Wednesday or Thursday.”
WOW… 97 to 1! Where is the outrage from conservatives? This bill is just piling on to the deficit and bankrupting our grandchildren!
That “extensive rebuttal” didn’t really seem to rebut anything you said, Greg.
“Any little tornadoes spawned last night from the ever-present spin-war hurricane will precess into insignificance in a timely enough fashion.”
Well jzap, considering the Democrats picked up two House seats last night, I’d say you are exactly right.
Is Dick the New Dick?
NYT has a feature on Dick Armey that reminds me of the Angler feature on Cheney a couple of years ago.
I haven’t read it yet for good bits and pieces, but here’s the link if anyone is brave enough…
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/magazine/08Armey-t.html
TPM is reporting that AARP is about to endorse the House Version of Health Care Reform.
Hey Blue Dogs! AARP AARP AARP; right back at you!
“Some 55% of Washington voters opposed the plan, as did 60% of Mainers, who voted it down for a third time.”
Whoa – there goes the “Taxes are evil” idea the right has been running on.
““The move by Cornyn and Steele, in effect, may make it more likely for conservatives to take on moderate or “establishment” Republicans.”
I’m cynical enough about Cornyn and about STeele to think they know that.
@lmsinca
That could be a good thing for the dems, but if we screw up, then the nutbags that get nominated instead will end up burning this country to the ground. Its incentive to get our s#it together
OT – but still relevant. I watched the HBO airing of the documentary about the Obama campaign and election last night, and I heard someone among one of Palin’s crowds say outloud: “I don’t want a black man running my country.”
But it was never about race, of course.
Heck Tena, my parents are dyed-in-the-wool republicans and they honestly think their party is insane for pushing tax cuts… they just also think the Dems are insane for not pushing spending cuts. I’m not really sure why they’re not independents…
Once again, a direct correlation between HCR and HC industry stocks:
The healthcare sector jumped on hopes the Obama administration’s healthcare reforms may be slowed after Republicans scored some key election victories.
The Morgan Stanley Healthcare Payor index jumped 5.6 percent, while the S&P Healthcare index rose 1.8 percent.
Healthcare stocks also got a lift from Wellcare Health Plans Inc , which jumped 10.2 percent to $29 after the managed care company posted a quarterly profit above analysts’ estimates even as membership fell about 8 percent from a year earlier.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/11/04/business/business-us-markets-stocks.html
New twist in Ill-Sen. race.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/il-sen-kirk-seeks-palin-endors.html
“my parents are dyed-in-the-wool republicans and they honestly think their party is insane for pushing tax cuts… ”
To me that means your parents are capable of dealing with reality because the 8 years Bush was in office with his tax cuts are what put us into the awful economic situation we’re in now.
If California would just repeal Prop 13, they could be solvent again.
“But it was never about race, of course.”
Of course it was. Every person who didn’t vote for the One is a racist. What you heard proves it.
“What you heard proves it.”
I didn’t know it proved anything except that whoever said it is a racist.
Thanks for clarifying.
“To me that means your parents are capable of dealing with reality because the 8 years Bush was in office with his tax cuts are what put us into the awful economic situation we’re in now.”
Lower taxes in no way caused the “awful situation.” If you want to say reckless spending did, that’s fine, although even that wasn’t really what caused the credit crisis.
“Lower taxes in no way caused the “awful situation.””
The hell they didn’t. They contributed directly to the huge deficit the Republicans amassed, not to mention the huge debt.
Those are part of the awful economic situation.
woah, the RNC sent in a minor leaguer to pinch hit for that response. didnt address the objective fact that the reason that indys are more conservative now than last year because they are embarrassed former republicans.
and no effort whatsoever to address the facts that voters in NJ and VA both said that (i) their vote had nothing to do with President Obama, (ii) they still approved of President Obama at the same basic number as they voted for him in 2008, and (iii) both republican candidates won by expressly distancing themselves from being Republicans (neither of their websites nor their campaign mailings referred to them as Republicans).
In fact, McDonnell hid his conservative past and referred nonstop to his bipartisan legislation and jobs and the economy (instead of his radical rightwing social policy platforms which he knew would offend everyone except the most rabid Glenn Beck fan), and Christie said from day one he couldn’t wait to work with President Obama, even saying it again in his victory speech last night.
My 2 year old son could have come up with a better response that the RNC operative.
The spin from the Democrats on this is nothing short of hilarious.
The most hilarious part? Claiming that Christie was actually elected because of Obama because Christie claimed he wanted to work with him.
Never mind the fact that Obama campaigned repeatedly for Corzine.
The Dems on here can try and spin away the Republican victories all you want. It changes absolutely nothing. The Dems got crushed, period.
The Dems on here can try and spin away the Republican victories all you want. It changes absolutely nothing. The Dems got crushed, period.
And you can go on and on thinking that the Party of The Confederacy and the John Birchers is capable of leading the nation.
Where do you find that happy stuff you smoke, anyway?