Heckofajob, Dem Establishment: Poll Shows Specter Has “Near Fatal” Reelection Numbers
It isn’t often discussed, but if Senator Arlen Specter manages to lose the Pennsylvania Senate race to GOP challenger Pat Toomey, some of the blame will fall squarely on the White House and Dem establishment, which engineered Specter’s party switch in the belief that it could win a seat for Dems.
It’s a real possibility, according to this polling in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review:
Only 31 percent of Pennsylvania voters believe Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter should be re-elected, and 59 percent believe it’s time to give someone else a chance, a state poll released today shows.
Specter’s numbers are “staggering,” said pollster Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research….
“When I see a re-elect in the low 30s, that’s … near fatal,” Lee said.
Meanwhile, Specter and Toomey are in a dead heat. If Specter loses, those who engineered the switch will argue that the seat was in GOP hands before and that this was the best shot at flipping it.
Specter is likely to get a bounce if he wins the Dem primary, and it’ll be tough for the conservative Toomey to prevail. But it’s at least possible that Specter could win the Dem primary based on name recognition, and go on to lose among general election voters, independents in particular, who don’t buy the sincerity of his switch. It’s not out of the question that a longtime Dem and fresh face might have a better shot than Specter in a general election.
This blog’s homepage is here. RSS feed here. Twitter feed here. Email me here.
I have to agree here – I don’t know why the White House was so adamant on protecting Arlen Specter while he changed parties for no good reason.
We could have Sestak and that is far preferable -
I don’t know why the White House was so adamant on protecting Arlen Specter while he changed parties for no good reason.
Biden and Specter are very chummy.
Finally, something many of us here can agree on – we hate Specter and want this Benedict Arnold (twice!) to be removed.
(Actually, he did change parties for a good reason, but it probably won’t help him as much as he hoped. His voter base has always been the fiscally conservative, socially moderate suburban Republican voters of the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia suburbs. Since PA has closed primaries and those people switched parties to avoid the ascendancy of the wingnuts during the last eight years if Specter were to run for re-election as a Pennsylvania Republican in 2010 he’d be facing the remaining Pennsylvania Republican voters.
Those people hate him and always have. They never wanted him to be their senator in the first place.
Um, I thought sbj wasn’t a Republican………..
It’s not out of the question?
There is no question. Sestak has a much better chance at beating Toomey in the general than Specter does. It’s not even close to a question.
That being said…the WH can’t really openly flaunt a primary challange against Specter and expect him to so easily fall in line on votes like HCR.
Here’s hoping Sestak wins. It’s not even a Republican/Democrat issue at this point. It’s the political calculation of it that’s disgusting, and hopefully the people of PA stand up to it.
oddjob – When I said no good reason, I meant that it won’t help him and it hasn’t done much for us at all.
I would much prefer Sestak over Specter and think he has the best shot at Toomey. I sort of wish the WH would stay out of it, but I guess they feel they owe Specter. Hopefully, the voters know best.
@oddjob: “Um, I thought sbj wasn’t a Republican………..”
I’m not. What’s your point? Did I write that I root for Toomey? Oh no, I didn’t…I leave it to the folks in PA to elect the right person for them.
Imsinca – that’s where I am. I wish the White House had stayed out of it but they didn’t so here we are.
I’d still rather be facing the choice as a voter between Specter and Sestak instead of the c*r*a*p I have to choose between in Texas every election.
A few months ago Hardball had back-to-back-to-back interviews with Specter, Sestak, and Toomey. And all I can say is, sorry, Pennsylvania. Ooof. Sestak’s clearly the best of the bunch but his aw-shucks-golly demeanor was more than a little hard to take.
One big thing going for Arlen is his seniority. That enables him to get more done for Pennsylvania.
I suppose he could turn it around and still pull it off – I have no real idea since I’m a hell of along way from Pennsylvania.
Greg
This Greenwald piece in Salon today would make for good fodder on Happy Hour.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/10/14/criticism/
Imsinca – I have an answer to Glenn’s question: Does anyone think it’s a bad thing (that the left has “held Obama’s feet to the fire” as he thinks he’s doing) –
It’s called “crying wolf,” Glenn. You keep it up and people won’t listen anymore.
Glenn never likes anything.
Reality Check.
Take Arlen Specter at his word.
He did not become a Democrat because that is what he wished to do. He said that he was left with no other option because his Republican Party were intent on defeating him in the Republican primary, and he felt that he was going to lose the primary to Toomey.
Democrats were right to take him in. Watch when the time comes for a cloture vote on health care reform, and you may be glad we treated Specter like a Rent A Player for the Playoffs drive.
If Specter loses in the Democratic primary, then the Democrat will be the next Senator, and if Specter wins the primary, he will be reelected. That is a Win Win Win for Democrats. We win his vote for cloture and if he wins the nomination, we have him in our caucus, and if he loses in the primary, we will have Sestak in our caucus.
Toomey is a far right wing guy, and he can not win the general election.
One big thing going for Arlen is his seniority. That enables him to get more done for Pennsylvania.
I could be wrong about this, but I thought the Dems stripped him of his seniority when he switched parties this last time. I seem to remember a comment about him being a bit surprised about it with respect to Judiciary.
I think he’s a great example of a guy who should just collect his laurels and go home. He’s over 70, has had cancer, has been in office for many, many years. Its kind of pathetic and sad in a way that he seems unable to envision any other life.
“I think he’s a great example of a guy who should just collect his laurels and go home.”
Word!
Freehold – hell, you are right I think – I forgot that.
“That is a Win Win Win for Democrats”
Sure looks like it.
Freehold
Did you see my quick comments on the paper you linked for me this morning?
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/republican-national-committee/happy-hour-roundup-97/#comment-92368
Toomey lost to Spector by less than 2% last time round, and that was with zero endorsements.
A lot of people are fed up with their government in general. I think incumbants are going to feel a lot of heat this next election cycle. Huge spending is weakening the dollar even more – say hello to higher consumer prices & commodoties – and Americans vote their wallet.
Spector is a poster boy for term limits. Go Sestak!
Who needs Dem establishment when we’re up against THIS:
“I’m not trying to be an obstructionist here. To the contrary, I’m saying, Can we all get in the room and have a Rodney King moment?” he said. He was referring to King’s famous “Can we all get along?” line following the 1992 Los Angeles race riots sparked by the acquittal of the police officers who beat King.
Later in the interview, Steele said he is indeed obstructing health care reform, calling himself the “cow on the tracks.” The Fox anchor had noted that Democrats are saying the health care reform train has “already left the station” and “Republicans better jump on board.”
“Well, I’m the cow on the tracks. You’re gonna have to stop that train to get this cow off the track to move forward,” Steele said. “They told us in June that there would be a health care bill on the president’s desk on Aug. 1. I think our efforts helped change that dynamic, and our efforts this fall will continue to change that dynamic.”
http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/steele-on-bipartisanship-can-we-have-a-rodney-king-moment.php?ref=fpblg
Yikes!!!!
Maybe Specter should take a page from Grayson’s playbook. No comers so far.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/columnists/orl-locgrayson-seat-mike-thomas-101101309oct13,0,5257664,full.column
we needed 60 for healthcare vote….why are people so stupid?
How many of the 59% are democratic voters that want Sestak instead? And how many of these voters would vote for Specter in the general election? I mean, how many of the democratic voters want the change to happen in the primary, and if it doesn’t, are they still going to want change in the general?
I suppose he could turn it around and still pull it off
It’s not impossible, but on the other hand he already holds the record for the longest number of terms served in the US Senate by a senator from Pennsylvania. He’s been there since I was an undergraduate and I’m about to turn 50. Between that and the party switching I won’t be surprised if he loses, simply because he’s been there so long.
And yes, he’s been there a long time, but it’s still an open question what the Senate Dem. Caucus will do about his seniority. From their perspective he is one of their most junior members. I know I remember reading that Barbara McKulski (sp?) has already indicated she will fight his getting full seniority rights if it damages her standing (as it would). I imagine there are a bunch of other Dem. senators who would support her.
So while yes, Specter’s been there a long time (too long), no, it’s not clear how much that will benefit Pennsylvania if he returns to office in 2011.
How many of the 59% are democratic voters that want Sestak instead?
Last I remember reading (a couple of weeks ago) Sestak was still trailing Specter in head-to-head polling (among registered PA Dems. who are the only ones who will be able to vote on them).
He’s over 70, has had cancer, has been in office for many, many years. Its kind of pathetic and sad in a way that he seems unable to envision any other life.
Next February he turns 80.
@ Imsinca
Yes, saw your comments, thanks.
Its interesting that American manufacturing is still quite strong (number 1 in the world and about 24% of global output), its just requires a lot fewer people as a fraction of the workforce to get the work done.
The White House would rather have Sestak, but needs 60 votes. Do the math, folks.
Tena:
“…it won’t help him and it hasn’t done much for us at all.”
From the opposite side of the political divide, I really have to give you props for very nearly summing up what could be etched in stone as an epitaph for Arlen Specter’s entire political career.
He was a JFK/LBJ era hack who got the break of his life when they chose him to be the coffee and donuts boy for the Warren Commission.
The clown’s been eating lunch off his single bullet theory for the past 40 years, f’christsakes!
Latest Rasmussen poll puts Specter in a statistical tie with Sestak among Pennsylvania Dem. primary voters. Sestak is now tied with Toomey and Specter trails Toomey by 5%.
Hat tip, TPM.
Looks like the Dem. undecideds have been breaking hugely for Sestak.
(Given Rasmussen’s tendency to favor the right I wouldn’t be surprised if it was actually more like Sestak was slightly leading Toomey and Specter & Toomey were tied.)
Tena, I grew up in PA and my parents are represented by one of those right wing religious nutcases. The county went for McCain, but the main city went for Obama. Specter maybe once was a reasonable individual, but hasn’t been one for a long time. We could do a lot worse than Sestak (Toomey, for instance). And I did read this morning that the poll showing Specter way behind also showed Sestak with a comfortable lead over Toomey. (If you liked Santorum, you will love Toomey.)
Having said that, do you REALLY regard our dear governor Goodhair as c*r*a*p? My goodness, how could you say such a thing about a man who wants to sell off our highway system to a Spanish/Australian conglomerate for the next 75 years, a man who is responsible for kicking more kids off health care than even W, a man who is presently covering up his complicity in executing an innocent man, a man who refused the stimulus gift for unemployment but then had to borrow more money at higher interest rates, a man who destroyed the registration system for assistance because of his faith based political values so that now we have a three month wait for food stamp registration, a man responsible for continuing W’s attack on our school system? How could you ever categorize an individual like that as something that gets bulldozed out of a feedlot after the steers are sold? Your basic Christian kindness is showing and you are to be commended for not saying what you must really be thinking.