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Enough surges of sunshine have jettisoned temperatures higher than yesterday, into the low 80s across much of the area this afternoon. So far, thunderstorm activity is far more muted than yesterday afternoon and evening, but we are still running a 40% risk of storms through evening. The warming trend continues into tomorrow with the potential for a few scattered storms ahead of a hot holiday weekend that should feature fewer storms, but even more humidity.

Through Tonight: We’re partly cloudy with thunderstorm chances around 40% through evening, then dropping off overnight. After a warm evening in the 70s, overnight lows drop into the 60s with light breezes from the south.

Tomorrow (Friday): The launch of the holiday weekend will be one of the warmest days we’ve seen in a while with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies are mixed overall, but partly sunny most of the time with light winds from the south again. A 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm remains.

See David Streit’s forecast through Memorial Day. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Tropical Storm Beryl? The National Hurricane Center is getting more interested in a tropical system in the northwest Caribbean. Conditions may become more favorable for development this weekend when it moves off the Southeast coastline (like last weekend’s Alberto). If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be Beryl. No major threats to land are expected as of now besides the potential for heavy rain over Florida and along parts of the Southeast coast. But we’ll keep you updated.

Percent of precipitation received over the last month compared to average (Great Plains Regional Climate Center) Before we get into the topic of the day, a look at the last two weeks shows the disparity going on in the area’s rainfall. Washington, D.C. basically straddles the “haves” to the north and west and the “have nots” to the south and east. I will be the first not to complain, looking at some of the deficits that the Eastern Shore is putting up with.

On top of that, temperatures continue to pile on with above-normal readings consistently outweighing the rare cool ones. What is particularly painful is the massive stream of tropical moisture that has become established off the East Coast. Still, the forecast models do give some hope over the next two weeks that we will tap into some of that and catch up with our wetter western burbs.

I believe in my past blogs I have made it abundantly clear that I am not the most ambitious gardener out there. When it comes to planting, perennials are almost always going to be my go-to plants. While not work-free, nearly all will give quite a few years of reliable performance in the garden. However, who doesn’t like the bursts of color that annuals can bring to the garden? The ones that get my attention are the ones that sow themselves! Voila, annuals that act just like perennials. Not only do I get off easy by not having to plant but I save money too!

Warmest March-May temperatures recorded at Reagan National Airport (DCA). Italicized temperature indicates average through May 23. (Capital Weather Gang - NWS) We still have one more week left in May, but after a record-warm March and above-average temperatures on all but four days this month, Washington, D.C. is on track to record its warmest meteorological spring on record.

Through yesterday (May 23), the monthly average temperature at D.C.’s Reagan National Airport was running 4.3 degrees F above normal. A slightly warmer-than-average April on the heels of unusual March warmth has brought D.C.’s 2012 springtime temperature up to 61.4ºF, or 4.9 degrees above the March-May average of 56.5ºF.

This May 20, 2012 satellite image provided by NASA and NOAA, shows Alberto, the first tropical storm of the 2012 season off the southeastern US coast. (HO - AFP/GETTY IMAGES) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters said today that they expect this year’s June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season to produce close to an average number of storms.

Robert Detrick, director of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, told a press conference at the National Hurricane Center in Miami that NOAA expects expects 9 to 15 named tropical storms with winds faster than 39 mph to form during the June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season.

NOAA’s forecasters say 4 to 8 of these should grow into 74 mph or stronger hurricanes, and 1 to 3 to become major hurricanes with winds faster than 111 mph.

Today: Partly sunny. 50% chance of p.m. t’showers. 79-85. | Tonight: 30% chance of evening showers. 61-68. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Isolated t’showers? 84-88. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


A little too cloudy to start and a little too warm to finish. Otherwise it’s not bad but still bring the umbrella. Get the Digit on Twitter| Discuss on Facebook

Just in time for the first unofficial weekend of summer, here comes the heat. Given all the warm days we’ve had it’s almost surprising we haven’t hit 90 yet this year. We’re likely to get there this weekend and it might even be a trfecta with Saturday through Monday all vying for the 90 mark and heat indices into the 90s. The good news is lower thundershower chances (but still a chance) starting tomorrow. For you beach bums, we’ve got the holiday weekend beach forecast at the end of this post, so check it out dude!

Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): Morning fog and low clouds may require a little time to burn off especially east of the city. However, partial sun should grace our skies later in the morning and into the afternoon as light winds come from the south. That should push highs to near 80 to the mid-80s. Thundershowers are likely to pop again in the afternoon but should be less numerous than yesterday with an overall 50% chance of a given location getting wet. Confidence: Medium

What is the Storm Threat Level?

Tonight: Any lingering showers (30% chance) should die during the early-to-mid evening. Breezes are light from the south. Evening readings in the comfortable 70s drop into the 60s for overnight lows. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...